We present a study of the potential impact of deepening the Corpus Christi Ship Channel through Aransas Pass; in particular, we study the effect on the transport of red drum fish larvae due to the change in channel depth. The study is conducted by high resolution simulation of the circulation of the seawater entering and exiting the pass for the current and proposed Ship Channel depths. The computer model incorporates tides and meteorological forcing and includes the entire Gulf of Mexico and the North American Atlantic coast. The corresponding transport of larvae modeled as passive particles due to the sea water circulation is established by releasing particles in the nearshore region outside Aransas Pass and subsequently tracking their trajectories. Both models are implemented in supercomputers at the Texas Advanced Computing Center (TACC). Accuracy of the circulation model computations is validated through comparisons to data collected from tidal gauges in the fall of 2020. We compare the difference in the number of larvae that successfully reach appropriate nursery grounds inside Aransas Pass for four distinctive initial larvae positions in the nearshore region. Our results indicate that the change in channel depth does not significantly alter the number of red drum larvae that reach suitable see a net increase of 0.5%.

Dynamic influences on summertime seasonal United States rainfall variability are not well understood. A major cause of moisture transport is the Great Plains low-level jet (LLJ). Using observations and a dry atmospheric general circulation model, this study explored the distinct and combined impacts of two prominent atmospheric teleconnections - the East Asian monsoon (EAM) and North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) - on the Great Plains LLJ in the summer. Separately, a strong EAM and strong western NASH are linked to a strengthened LLJ and positive rainfall anomalies in the Plains/ Midwest. Overall, NASH variability is more important for considering the LLJ impacts, but strong EAM events amplify western NASH-related Great Plains LLJ strengthening and associated rainfall signals. This occurs when the EAM-forced Rossby wave pattern over North America constructively interferes with low-level wind field, providing upper-level support for the LLJ and increasing mid- to upper-level divergence.

Sap flow observations provide a basis for estimating transpiration and understanding forest water use dynamics and plant-climate interactions. This study developed a continental modeling approach using Long Short-Term Memory networks (LSTMs) to predict hourly tree-level sap flow across Europe based on the SAPFLUXNET database. We developed models with varying levels of training sets to evaluate performance in unseen conditions. The average Kling-Gupta Efficiency was 0.77 for gauged models trained on 50 % of time series across all forest stands and was 0.52 for ungauged models trained on 50 % of the forest stands. Continental models matched or exceeded performance of specialized and baseline models for all genera and forest stands, demonstrating the potential of LSTMs to generalize hourly sap flow across tree, climate, and forest types. This work highlights hence the potential of deep learning models to generalize sap flow for enhancing tree to continental ecohydrological investigations.

Compound dry and hot extremes (CDHE, such as recent summers 2015, 2018 and 2022 in Europe) have wide ranging impacts: Heat exacerbates moisture shortages during dry periods whereas water demand rises. Climate change will likely increase the intensity, frequency, and duration of CDHE events in Europe. However, current studies focus on drivers and impacts in coarse-resolution global climate models and likely miss spatial details of CDHE characteristics. To overcome this issue, we exploit a regional 50-member single-model initial condition large ensemble (SMILE) at 12 km spatial resolution. Hence 1000 model years per 20 year-periods provide an extensive database of CDHE and robust estimations of their occurrence changes across Europe in high geographical detail. CDHE occurrences are investigated in a current climate and at two global warming levels (+2 °C, +3 °C). We identify Northern France, Southern Germany, Switzerland, Southern Ireland, and the western coasts of the Black Sea with currently low CDHE frequencies as emerging hotspots. These regions experience a tenfold occurrence increase under global warming conditions. Apart from Western Europe, temperature is the dominant contributor to frequency increases. Furthermore, tail dependencies strengthen in regions with high CDHE frequency increases. In European agricultural areas, soil moisture shows very strong negative correlations with CDHE extremeness. Last, our results suggest a halving of CDHE in a +2 °C world compared to a +3 °C world, highlighting the necessity of climate mitigation with respect to this hazard type.

Improving the accuracy of coupling of water and carbon cycles in land surface models has been emphasised in recent studies as a major priority for research. Reliable quantification of carbon and water balances is required in order to effectively estimate gross primary production (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET) across space and time. The P model (for ‘production’) is grounded in plant functional ecology and links the carbon and water cy- cles via a theory of stomatal optimization and photosynthetic acclimation. It has the mathematical form of a LUE model while being traceable to first principles, including the standard model of photosynthesis, for the prediction of GPP. The model has only three free parameters, of which two are estimated from independent observations on leaf stable carbon isotopes and leaf-level electron transport capacity. The model requires only elevation, CO2 concentration, solar radiation, vapour pressure deficit (VPD) and temperature as input. We will present a demonstration application of the P model using a novel approach that extends the algo- rithm to create a prototype of a universal transpiration (T) product using Sentinel 3 data. Both GPP and T outputs will be evaluated against FLUXNET observations. Stomatal conductance will be calculated based on the model’s predictions of GPP and the ratio of internal to external CO2 partial pressure, allowing transpiration to be calculated from VPD. The P model has many advantages, including its strong theoretical and empirical basis, extremely parameter-sparse nature, and the fact that it does not require the prior specification of plant functional types or land cover types. The research presented here will extend its application from primary production monitoring to include carbon-water cycle coupling and water resources assessment.

Recent previous research has established the “sharpest gradient” approach to defining the circumpolar vortex and has identified correlations of the area and circularity of the Northern Hemisphere’s circumpolar vortex (NHCPV) to important atmospheric-oceanic teleconnections. However, because geographical shifts in the NHCPV, independent of area or circularity changes, could affect surface environmental conditions, this research addresses the question of the extent to which the NHCPV centroid undergoes such shifts, both intra- and inter-annually. Results show that during the 1979–2017 period, the centroid has moved less on a daily basis in more recent years, perhaps indicative of a stabilization in circulation, with semi-annual and seasonal periodicities in the daily distance moved. A consistent preference toward the Eastern Hemisphere is evident by the displacement of the centroids toward the Pacific basin throughout the study period. Collectively, these results indicate the mid-tropospheric response to the near-surface warming.

Seismic source locations provide fundamental information on earthquakes and lay the foundation for seismic monitoring at all scales. Subsurface engineering operations, such as hydraulic fracturing, usually generate abundant microseismic events with low signal-to-noise ratios, thus raising a higher demand on the reliability and computational efficiency of seismic location methods. Stacking-based method involves reconstructing and focusing the radiated seismic source energy with a certain stacking operator, for example, the diffraction stacking operator or the cross-correlation stacking operator. They are noise-resistant, automatic, and data-driven. The source locations are resolved as images instead of discrete dots, offering more insights into source processes and surrounding structures. In this work, we conduct the performance evaluation and influential factor analysis with synthetic examples, to further improve the understanding of the method. Three categories of factors are investigated, including the velocity model, array geometry, and waveform complexity. Each of the three factors consists of several detailed factors, such as different array types and noise levels. Multiple parameters are considered for the performance evaluation, including location error/bias, imaging resolution, signal alignment with time shifts, and the computational cost. The proposed scheme is also applied to field microseismic datasets to demonstrate its feasibility. This study will be conducive to the design and evaluation of surface monitoring projects.

The Cenozoic evolution of the Himalaya-Tibet Plateau, dictated by the India-Asia convergence, remains a subject of substantial ambiguity. Here, a thermo-mechanical model is used to show the critical controls of decelerating convergence on the formation and stabilization of distinctive tectonic structures during prolonged collision. At high constant convergence rates, similar to the late Paleogene India-Asia motions, the lower plate crust is injected beneath the overriding crust, uplifting a plateau, first, then is exhumed towards the orogeny front. Conversely, low constant convergence rates, similar to the Neogene India-Asia motions, induce crustal thickening and plateau formation without underplating or exhumation of incoming crust. Strikingly, models simulating the decelerating India-Asia convergence history portray a dynamic evolution, highlighting the transitory nature of features under decreasing convergence, as the orogen shifts to a new equilibrium. In the transitional phase, the slowing of convergence decreases basal shearing and compression, leading to extension and heating in the orogen interiors. This allows diapiric ascent of buried crust and plateau collapse, as accretion migrates to a frontal fold-and-thrust belt. The models provide insights into the multi-stage evolution of the long-lived Himalayan-Tibetan orogeny, from fast early growth of the Tibetan Plateau, through its transient destabilisation and late-stage internal extension, behind the expanding Himalayan belt.

An improved understanding of the mechanisms and factors affecting glacial flow is crucial to better predict sea level rise. Glacial ice often contains impurities such as the presence of small insoluble particles. Mixtures of ice and dust can be found in many places throughout the world, specifically in areas of high latitude and altitude (Moore, 2014). This study aims to understand the effect of entrained insoluble debris on processes of glacial motion. Glaciers move through a combination of internal ice deformation and basal sliding. Internal ice deformation, the flow of individual ice grains, has been found to be grain-size dependent in both field and laboratory studies (Goldsby and Kohlstedt, 2001). In an attempt to better understand ice grain size, this study considers the effect of debris on grain growth. Samples of pure ice and ice with debris were fabricated with a standard protocol and maintained at -5°C for controlled annealing. Microstructural characterization was preformed using a light microscope to image the samples, and calculating the average grain sizes using a linear-intercept method. The ice with debris was found to have smaller grain sizes, thought to be associated with grain-boundary pinning. Extrapolated values were used with a flow law, projecting that ice with debris will have lower viscosity, thus flow faster. To address basal sliding, the other form of glacial movement, we conducted a second phase of study. Basal sliding, the process of a glacier sliding over the bedrock, is influenced by the presence of meltwater at the base of the glacier (Hoffman et al., 2011). Frictional heating, from ice-on-rock friction, was studied as a factor affecting meltwater production. We conducted a simple 1D computer model using laboratory friction measurements of ice with entrained debris (Zoet et al., 2013). We find that debris content and frictional heating are directly proportional. Trials run at faster glacial velocities also show larger amounts of frictional heating. As frictional heating may increase meltwater, glaciers with debris may slide faster over bedrock. Overall, by better understanding the motion of debris-rich glaciers, we can focus our attention to areas around the world at risk, and better predict/prepare for sea level rise.

Reliable air temperature forecasts are necessary for mitigating the effects of droughts and Heatwaves. The numerical weather prediction(NWP) model forecasts have significant biases associated and therefore need post-processing. Post-processing of temperature forecasts using probabilistic approaches are lacking in India. In this study, we post-process the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and EuropeanCentre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) NWP model temperature forecasts for short to medium range time scales (1-7 days)using two probabilistic techniques, namely, Bayesian model averaging(BMA) and Nonhomogeneous gaussian regression (NGR). The post-processing techniques are evaluated for temperature (maximum and minimum) predictions across the Indian region. Results show that the probabilistic approaches considerably enhance the temperature predictions across India except the Himalayan regions. These techniques also comprehensively outperform the traditional post-processing techniques such as the running mean and simple linear regression. The NGR performs better than the BMA across all regions and is able to provide highly skillful temperature forecasts at higher lead times as well. Further, the study also assesses the implication of probabilistic post-processing Tmax forecast towards forecast enhancement of heatwaves (HW) in India. Post-processed Tmax forecasts revealed that the NGR approach considerably enhanced the HW prediction skill in India, especially in the northwestern and central Indian regions, considered highly prone to HW. The findings of this study will be useful in developing enhanced HW early warning and prediction systems in India.

Intra-urban fine-scale data and models are needed to understand infrastructure interactions that shape equity and health related to extreme heat, cold and precipitation events. Fine-scale data are needed to address spatial equity at the scale of city blocks or block groups where income and race data are available. We conducted nested simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that cover parts of the US state of Minnesota — one of the fastest warming states in the contiguous US. The first two nests at 5km and 1km horizontal resolution cover the counties of southern Minnesota, with the outer 5km grid also covering some counties in the neighboring states Iowa and Wisconsin. Within the 1km inner grid, we created two additional nests. The third grid covers the metropolitan region of the Twin Cities Minneapolis and Saint Paul at 200m resolution. Within this grid, we created a fourth nest over a 4x4km neighborhood in downtown Minneapolis that includes the campus of the University of Minnesota at 40m resolution. All model nests have 82 vertical levels. Lateral input data were acquired from the global Coupled Forecast System (CFS) analysis at 30km horizontal resolution. The boundary conditions consist of high-resolution land use data including vegetation types, urban fraction, building heights and shapes. The input data were specifically designed by the Remote Sensing and Geospatial Analysis Laboratory at the University of Minnesota and cover the whole Twin Cities Metro Area (TCMA) at 1m horizontal resolution. This dataset was derived from a multi-temporal composite of aerial imagery from the summer of 2015 and fall of 2009-2011, and lidar data of 2011 and 2012. The vertical accuracy of the lidar data meets or exceeds 12.5cm root mean square error (RMSE). The results of our model simulations show remarkable fine-scale climate responses to changes in vegetation cover and albedo that are going to be used for various urban planning projects.

Microbial processing of fresh carbon inputs is recognized as a key step in the formation of mineral-associated organic matter. Low molecular weight (LMW) compounds comprise a notable fraction of these inputs and are rapidly assimilated and metabolized by the microbial community. In this work, we employ ecophysiological studies of microbial isolates to better understand the role of substrate identity as a control on preferences, uptake kinetics, and carbon use efficiencies (CUE) across a gradient of phylogenetic differences (gram negative, gram positive, and fungal). Soil-extracted, solubilized organic matter (SESOM) derived from the Oa horizon of a hemlock-hardwood forest stand and synthetic media based off of this extract were chosen as liquid media for batch growth studies. A combination of exometabolomic techniques (1H NMR, UHPLC-MS) were used to quantify 35 LMW substrates in the original extract (0.4 – 195 μM), comprising 19.5% of total C and 39.9% of total N. Consumption of these substrates by microbial isolates accounted for a substantial amount of total C and N assimilated during growth, representing 43-75% and 58-74%, respectively. Time resolved sampling allowed modeling of sigmoidal uptake curves and the comparison of the midpoint of consumption (Th, hr) and 90% usage windows (ranging from 0.18 – 2.29 hr). Complementary experiments were conducted using synthetic media with all substrates at equimolar concentrations (25 μM) to better constrain the impact of initial concentration. We use stable isotope probing to determine CUE for five different LMW substrates of interest (glucose, acetate, formate, glycine, and valine). Ultimately, we are interested in whether unifying trends can be observed across the physiological gradient and how the metabolic transformations of these inputs may impact the organo-mineral formation process.

In situ measurements of the solar wind have been available for almost 60 years, and in that time plasma-physics simulation capabilities have commenced, and ground-based solar observations have expanded into space-based solar observations. These observations and simulations have yielded an increasingly improved knowledge of fundamental physics and have delivered a remarkable understanding of the solar wind and its complexity. Yet there are longstanding major unsolved questions. Synthesizing inputs from the solar wind research community, nine outstanding questions of solar-wind physics are developed and discussed in this commentary. These involve questions about the formation of the solar wind, about the inherent properties of the solar wind (and what the properties say about its formation), and about the evolution of the solar wind. The questions focus on (1) origin locations on the Sun, (2) plasma release, (3) acceleration, (4) heavy-ion abundances and charge states, (5) magnetic structure, (6) Alfven waves, (7) turbulence, (8) distribution-function evolution, and (9) energetic-particle transport. On these nine questions we offer suggestions for future progress, forward looking on what is likely to be accomplished in near future with data from Parker Solar Probe, from Solar Orbiter, from the Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope (DKIST), and from Polarimeter to Unify the Corona and Heliosphere (PUNCH). Calls are made for improved measurements, for higher-resolution simulations, and for advances in plasma-physics theory.

Collision between the Pontides and Anatolide-Tauride Block along the İzmir-Ankara-Erzincan suture in Anatolia has been variously estimated from the Late Cretaceous to Eocene. It remains unclear whether this age range results from a protracted, multi-phase collision or differences between proxies of collision age and along strike. Here, we leverage the Cretaceous-Eocene evolution of the forearc-to-foreland Central Sakarya Basin system in western Anatolia to determine when and how collision progressed. New detrital zircon and sandstone petrography results indicate that the volcanic arc was the main source of sediment to the forearc basin in the Late Cretaceous. The first appearance of Pontide basement-aged detrital zircons, in concert with exhumation of the accretionary prism and a decrease in regional convergence rates indicates intercontinental collision initiated no later than 76 Ma. However, this first contractional phase does not produce thick-skinned deformation and basin partitioning until ca. 54 Ma, coeval to regional syn-collisional magmatism. We propose three non-exclusive and widely applicable mechanisms to reconcile the observed ~20 Myr delay between initial intercontinental collision and thick-skinned upper plate deformation: relict basin closure north and south of the İAES, gradual underthrusting of thicker lithosphere, and Paleocene slab breakoff. These mechanisms highlight the links between upper plate deformation and plate coupling during continental collision.

There has been increasing realization that the non-traditional Coriolis force terms may have a significant effect on convective circulation and organization in the tropics. In this talk, we introduce the concept of the net Coriolis force of a fluid dynamical flow. In order to compute the net Coriolis force, we assume incompressible flow - and therefore incompressible net Corolis force. Through the Leray projection we are able to construct, both, the pressure needed to maintain an incompressible force, and the net Coriolis force, itself. We explore the effects of the net Coriolis force on basic flows by decomposing the velocity field using the Helmholtz decomposition, and we describe poloidal and horizontal flows separately. We then compute the net Coriolis force associated with the Traditional Corolis terms (proportional to the sine of latitude) and, separately, the net Non-Traditional Coriolis terms (proportional to the cosine of latitude). We show that all poloidal circulations - which are flows which lack a vertical component of vorticity - are in vertical gesotrophic balance. Therefore, the pressure induced by such flows is simply computed without the need to invert a Laplacian. Using the Dynamics of Non-rotating Updraft Tori (DoNUT), which is a polodial circulation framework introduced by Igel & Biello (2020) to describe the full kinematic circulation of atmospheric convection, we show that the net non-traditional Coriolis force has zero component in the vertical direction, is westward in the regions of upward flow, and recirculates eastward poleward of the upward flow. The resulting circulations lead to vertical/westward oriented momentum flux from the resulting Reynold’s stress terms. We will conclude by discussing implications of these circulations for tropical convective organization.

Domain repositories can be an integral part of extensive community support systems that extend from proposal planning and writing, through project initiation and implementation, data collection, management, and archive, to publication of results and access to data by other community members. These long-term relationships are reflected in multiple contributions (data, software, results, papers, …) by community members and recognizing these contributions should be an important community-building best-practice for these repositories. Identifiers for people and organizations are critical for recognizing community members and, equally important, for making connections between them and all of the various objects in the research ecosystem. This Figure demonstrates connections that can made once identifiers are integrated into the research ecosystem. Most domain repositories provide DOIs for datasets in the repository. The metadata for those DOIs can include identifiers for some authors (ORCIDs) along with names of organizations they are affiliated with (affiliations). In practice, most authors in these metadata records do not have ORCIDs but, if they have an ORCID once, that ORCID can be spread across all of the datasets they have contributed to, increasing connectivity across the repository. Affiliations can also be spread across multiple contributions, with some caveats. If identifiers (i.e. RORs) exist and can be found for the affiliated organizations, they can be inserted into the metadata, again increasing connectivity. Many domain repositories maintain lists of research papers that have used data from the archive. Metadata for these papers also provide a potential source for identifiers and affiliations. These can also be harvested and spread across the repository, again improving connectivity. These ideas and techniques were applied to UNAVCO, a repository for data related to geodesy with a well-developed community with over 5000 archived datasets. The connectivity for the repository is below 10% for dataset contributors and 0% for RORs. Applying these techniques can increase the connectivity to 56% for contributors and 49% for RORs.

The Enriquillo-Plantain Garden Fault (EPGF), one of two left-lateral transforms that define the Caribbean-North American plate boundary in Haiti, plunges beneath Lake Azuei in the eastern part of the country. In 2017, we acquired 220 km of sub-bottom and multichannel seismic reflection profiles (CHIRP and MCS) in a 1.2 km grid pattern across the lake. The two seismic methods achieved subbottom penetration of up to 15 m and 200 m, respectively. CHIRP and MCS data reveal folded turbidites across the expected extension of the EPGF fault zone at the south end of the lake, although direct evidence for faulting is lacking. Along the west side of the lake, however, MCS data image a broad NW-SE monoclinal fold whose geometry is compatible with an underlying SW-dipping blind thrust fault. CHIRP profiles image patches of soft- sediment deformations above the monoclinal fold; they also image a distinctive 11 m-deep paleoshoreline all around the lake that is uplifted by 1-2 m above that fold. These results are compatible with a scenario where some large slip event(s) on the presumed blind thrust occurred after formation of the paleoshoreline, locally uplifting the lakebed and causing liquefaction. Two short sediment cores sampled a layer correlatable to a reflection in the CHIRP profiles. That reflection extends laterally below the 11m shoreline, and thus predates its formation. On-going 14C dating of material from the two cores are expected to provide a maximum age for the shoreline, and thus for some hypothetical slip event(s) on the presumed blind thrust fault. The prominent character of the paleoshoreline suggests that it was stable, something best achieved if the lake level was controlled by the sill depth of an outlet. Presently, no such outlet exists and the lake level fluctuates. Pending results from radiometric dating, we propose that, earlier in the Holocene, the lake overflowed eastward into adjacent Lake Enriquillo along the narrow valley marking the extension of the EPGF fault zone - a valley that is presently blocked by an alluvial fan. Regardless of the relevance of that model, the uplifted shoreline implies a significant uplift rate on a structure extending up to 10 km north of the EPGF fault zone and striking oblique to it, confirming that transpressional tectonics is partitioned over an area at least as broad as Lake Azuei.

Transport and retention behavior of Graphene Oxide (GO) is influenced by the physical and chemical properties of porous media under subsurface environmental conditions. Fixed-bed column studies using quartz sand and biochar (BC) in different configurations were conducted as a function of ionic strength and flowrate. Colloid filtration theory (CFT) was employed to develop mathematical models based on the one-dimensional convection-dispersion equation using experimental GO breakthrough curves (BTCs) and retention profiles (RPs) obtained from the experimental data. GO transport and retention behavior was modeled using BC and BC-nZVI (BC surface modified with nanoscale zero-valent iron) as filter media to understand the effect of media properties. It was demonstrated that the model can describe measured BTCs and RPs of GO in the sand, BC, and BC-nZVI. The inverse modeling approach was implemented to determine the attachment coefficient (Ka) and maximum solid-phase retention capacity (Smax) using GO BTCs for different experimental conditions. Higher Ka in BC at 10 mM IS indicated the influence of straining which agrees with the depth-dependent retention kinetics. Furthermore, pronounced GO aggregation at higher IS supports the higher Ka values at 10 mM compared to 0.1 mM. In contrast, higher Ka values were predicted in BC-nZVI at lower ionic strength (0.1 mM) primarily due to the attachment of GO onto nZVI where nZVI in BC pores was also favorable for the straining process. This study revealed that CFT including the attachment, straining, and blocking process can effectively describe the GO transport in BC and surface-modified BC-nZVI under subsurface environmental conditions.