For the analysis of water distribution systems, hydraulic simulation is of great importance; however, there are no suitable and holistic simulation tools for Intermittent Water Supply (IWS), so researchers are forced to utilise EPA-SWMM software, which needs some modifications to make it suitable for IWS analysis. This study focuses on providing a generic IWS analysis method in EPA-SWMM. Firstly, IWSs were classified according to coping strategies (e.g., household tank installation) customer satisfaction, supply schedule and duration to provide a unified terminology to the body of knowledge and assist in predicting the systems’ behaviour, which should be reflected in the modelling process. Then EPA-SWMM based modelling approaches were compared paying attention to the case studies applied and two improved hydraulic modelling approaches have been proposed depending on the customer satisfaction of the network (namely i) unsatisfied IWS, ii) satisfied and partially satisfied IWS). Ultimately, customer satisfaction is the key, as the IWS systems are driven by user water consumption behaviours that are based on the demand-supply relationship. The application of the proposed methods to two different case studies and comparison with the state-of-the-art methods demonstrated their capability, compatibility with EPA-SWMM operating principles, and the ability to simulate the IWS system behaviour in a more realistic manner. In addition, the proposed methods are generic, unlike the available ones, which, in most cases, are only applicable to the specific case study.

The theory for recording of thermally blocked remanences predicts a quasi-linear relationship between low fields like the Earth’s in which rocks cool and acquire a magnetization. This serves as the foundation for estimating ancient magnetic field strengths. Addressing long-standing questions concerning Earth’s magnetic field require a global paleointensity dataset, but recovering the ancient field strength is complicated because the theory only pertains to uniformly magnetized particles. A key requirement of a paleointensity experiment is that a magnetization blocked at a given temperature should be unblocked by zero-field reheating to the same temperature. However, failure of this requirement occurs frequently and the causes and consequences of failure are poorly understood. Recent experiments demonstrate that the remanence in many samples typical of those used in paleointensity experiments is unstable, and exhibits an ”aging’ effect in which the unblocking temperature spectrum changes over only a few years resulting in non-ideal experimental behavior. While a fresh remanenence may conform to the requirement of equality of blocking and unblocking temperatures, aged remanences may not. Blocking temperature spectra can be unstable (fragile), which precludes reproduction of the conditions under which the original magnetization was acquired. This limits our ability to acquire accurate and precise ancient magnetic field strength estimates because differences between known and estimated fields can be significant (up to 10 μT) for individual specimens, with a low field bias. Fragility of unblocking temperature spectra appears to be related to grain size and may be related to features observed in first-order reversal curves.

We use in situ measurements of suspended mud to assess the flocculation state of the lowermost freshwater reaches of the Mississippi River. The goal of the study was to assess the flocculation state of the mud in the absence of seawater, the spatial distribution of floc sizes within the river, and to look for seasonal differences between summer and winter. The data was also used to examine whether measured floc sizes could explain observed vertical distributions of suspended sediment concentration through a Rouse profile analysis. The surveys were conducted at the same location during summer and winter at similar discharges and suspended sediment concentrations, and in situ measures of the size distribution of the mud over the longitudinal, transverse, and vertical directions within the river were obtained using a specially developed underwater imaging system. These novel observations show that mud in the Mississippi is flocculated with median floc sizes ranging from 50 to 200 microns depending on location and season. On average flocs were found to be 40 microns larger during summer than in winter and to slightly increase in size moving downriver from the Bonnet Carré Spillway to Venice, LA. Floc size statistics varied little over the depth or laterally across the river at a given station. Bulk settling velocities calculated from size measurements matched values obtained from a Rouse profile analysis at stations with sandy beds, but underestimated settling velocities using the same equation parameters for measurements made during winter over muddy beds.

Computational software for planetary science and astrobiology is vital for understanding how complex systems interact, and for the analysis of sparse spacecraft data. PlanetProfile is an open source framework for modeling the interior of planetary bodies, especially ocean worlds, and is available in Matlab. We have rebuilt PlanetProfile in Python to improve its accessibility, as Python is free and widely used in scientific computing. PlanetProfile features such as the calculation of induced magnetic fields and seismic properties permit wider availability of these important tools for research purposes. An upcoming release of PlanetProfile contains the converted and streamlined software. New features such as a graphical user interface are in development that will support new users in taking advantage of these valuable tools.

The Planetary Data System (PDS) maintains archives of data collected by NASA missions that explore our solar system. The PDS Cartography and Imaging Sciences Node (Imaging Node) provides access to millions of images of planets, moons, and other bodies. Given the large and continually growing volume of data, there is a need for tools that enable users to quickly search for images of interest. Each image archived at the PDS Imaging Node is described by a rich set of searchable metadata properties, such as the time it was collected and the instrument used. However, users often wish to search on the content of the image to find those images most relevant to their scientific investigation or individual curiosity.  To enable the content-based search of the large image archives, we utilized machine learning techniques to create convolution neural network (CNN) classification models. The initial CNN classification results for rover missions (i.e., Mars Science Laboratory and Mars Exploration Rover) and orbiter missions (i.e., Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, Cassini, and Galileo) were deployed at the PDS Image Atlas (https://pds-imaging.jpl.nasa.gov/search) in 2017. With the content-based search capability, users of the PDS Image Atlas can search using a list of pre-defined classes and quickly find relevant images. For example, users can search “Impact ejecta” and find the images containing impact ejecta from the archive of the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter mission.  All of the CNN classification models were trained using the transfer learning approach, in which we adapted a CNN model pretrained on Earth images to classify planetary images. Over the past several years, we employed the following three techniques to improve the efficiency of collecting labeled data sets, the accuracy of the models, and the interpretability of the classification results:·      First, we used the marginal-probability based active learning (MP-AL) algorithm to improve the efficiency of collecting labeled data sets.·      Second, we used the classifier chain and ensemble approaches to improve the accuracy of the classification results. ·      Third, we incorporated the prototypical part network (ProtoPNet) architecture to improve the interpretability of the classification results.

Large-scale injection of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the earth started in the 1980’s for enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Geological sequestration (injection and storage) of industrial CO2 to reduce greenhouse gas emissions began in the 1990’s using saline aquifers and depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs. Today the two processes are being co-optimized as Carbon Capture, Use and Storage (CCUS). As a result, the time-lapse seismology community has gathered about 20-30 years of experience monitoring CO2 injection projects of various types and sizes, primarily using controlled active seismic sources and Large-N receiver arrays. To help achieve IPCC projections of 2C global temperature change versus CO2 emissions, society would need to scale up current CO2 injection rates by a factor of 250x from 40 Megatons to 10 Gigatons, per year. CCUS regulations for Monitoring and Verification requirements are in various stages of development around the world, including the EU CCS Directive, US EPA, and international ISO standards. A typical commercial-scale CCUS project injects > 1 Mt CO2/yr for > 20 years. After CO2 injection ceases, the project operator must further monitor the post-injection CO2 plume behavior to establish regulatory compliance for 20-50 years in order to “handover” the project to the regulator. After handover, the regulator is then responsible for monitoring the post-injection plume stability for another 20-30 years (in the US there is no handover, the operator maintains all project and monitoring responsibilities). These CCUS requirements imply that we will need to monitor CO2 projects, both during and after injection, for 50-100 years or more. We simply do not have experience in the time-lapse seismology community with such long-term monitoring periods, in terms of data acquisition, processing, imaging, and minimizing environmental footprint and costs. It would certainly not be practical nor affordable to conduct a full-scale 4D seismic survey every year, for 100 years. These long-term monitoring requirements thus present both challenges and new research opportunities. I will present some experimental results I have obtained over the past decade to help develop long-term, near real-time, continuous monitoring of CO2 injection projects using ambient seismic noise (ASN).

Introduction HYDROCOASTAL is a two year project funded by ESA, with the objective to maximise exploitation of SAR and SARin altimeter measurements in the coastal zone and inland waters, by evaluating and implementing new approaches to process SAR and SARin data from CryoSat-2, and SAR altimeter data from Sentinel-3A and Sentinel-3B. Optical data from Sentinel-2 MSI and Sentinel-3 OLCI instruments will also be used in generating River Discharge products. New SAR and SARin processing algorithms for the coastal zone and inland waters will be developed and implemented and evaluated through an initial Test Data Set for selected regions. From the results of this evaluation a processing scheme will be implemented to generate global coastal zone and river discharge data sets. A series of case studies will assess these products in terms of their scientific impacts. All the produced data sets will be available on request to external researchers, and full descriptions of the processing algorithms will be provided Objectives The scientific objectives of HYDROCOASTAL are to enhance our understanding of interactions between the inland water and coastal zone, between the coastal zone and the open ocean, and the small scale processes that govern these interactions. Also the project aims to improve our capability to characterize the variation at different time scales of inland water storage, exchanges with the ocean and the impact on regional sea-level changes The technical objectives are to develop and evaluate new SAR and SARin altimetry processing techniques in support of the scientific objectives, including stack processing, and filtering, and retracking. Also an improved Wet Troposphere Correction will be developed and evaluated. Presentation The presentation will describe the different SAR altimeter processing algorithms that are being evaluated in the first phase of the project, and present results from the evaluation of the initial test data set. It will focus particularly on the performance of the new algorithms over inland water.

The occurrence of a large number of earthquakes in the inter and intraplate settings of the Japan Trench leads to ruptures with varying frequencies. To capture the temporal distribution of energy and their ranges of frequencies, we have used the Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) derived from the vertical components of the strong-motion records. Here we present an “energy release function”, which is yet another way of representing frequency-dependent energy release. Without the assumptions of the area of slip and elastic moduli, this provides a new representation of the energy released at the source. Choice of the appropriate IMF and thus the range of frequencies representing the source was based on the best fitting teleseismic model for the same earthquake. We analysed the strong-motion records for three earthquakes (all in the magnitude range of 7.1 to 7.3), representing interplate, intraplate, and intraslab settings and used borehole data from the KiK-net. These were the Miyagi 2005 (Interplate), Tohoku 2011 (Intraslab), and Honshu 2012 (intraplate). We used the Hilbert-Huang Transform, a combination of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Hilbert Transform (HT) to develop the spectra for vertical components of each of these earthquakes. A combination of the IMFs within the frequency band (0.1 to 3 Hz) that mostly represent the frequency range used for teleseismic source inversion (0.01 to 2 Hz) was used to develop the spectra in each case. The shape of the spectra generally mimics that of the moment rate function. Where the moment-rate function follows a single pulse, the spectrum is able to generate its shape, and the sub-events are represented through independent pulses of energy. We believe that the representation of an earthquake source based on its frequency content and temporal pattern has important applications in predicting the shaking effects of an earthquake.

Financial institutions’ investment and lending portfolios could be affected by both physical climate risks stemming from impacts related to increasing temperatures, and from transition climate risks stemming from the economic consequences of the shift to a low-carbon economy. Here we present a consistent framework to explore near term (to 2030) transition risks and longer term (to 2050) physical risks, globally and in specific regions, for a range of plausible greenhouse gas emissions and associated temperature pathways, spanning 1.5-4oC levels of long-term warming. We draw on a technology-rich, regionally disaggregated Integrated Assessment Model representing energy system, agricultural and land-based greenhouse gas emissions, a reduced complexity climate model to simulate probabilistic global temperature changes over the 21st century, and a suite of impacts models to estimate regional climate-related physical hazards and impacts deriving from the temperature change pathways and their underlying socio-economics. We consider 11 scenarios to explore the dependence of risks on both temperature pathways, as well as socio-economic, technology and policy choices. This builds and expands on existing exercises such as the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). By 2050, physical risks deriving from major heatwaves, agricultural drought, heat stress and crop duration reductions depend greatly on the temperature pathway. By 2030, transition risks most sensitive to temperature pathways stem from economy-wide mitigation costs, carbon price increases, fossil fuel demand reductions and potential stranding of carbon-intensive assets such as coal-fired power stations. The more stringent the mitigation action, the higher the abatement costs and sector-specific transition risks. However, such scenarios result in lower physical climate hazards throughout the century. Our study also explores multiple 2 deg C pathways which demonstrate that scenarios with similar longer-term physical risks could have very different near-term transition risks depending on technological, policy and socio-economic factors. As such, “a single scenario will not answer all questions”.

Projected rates of emissions reductions are unlikely to keep global temperatures from crossing the Paris Agreement temperature targets. Large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) could help recover a target temperature after it has been exceeded, producing an overshoot scenario. Solar radiation management (SRM) is the proposal to cool the planet by increasing the reflection of incoming solar radiation. It could be used in an overshoot scenario for peak shaving, where SRM is deployed to maintain a temperature target during the overshoot. Here, we quantify the effect of peak shaving on the duration of the overshoot using an adapted extension of the SSP2-4.5 scenario and an ensemble of variants of the FaIR simple climate model. We find a substantial reduction in overshoot duration, which ranges from ∼5% for decadal overshoots up to ∼20% for multi-century overshoots. The shortening is predominantly driven by the ocean response to peak shaving. Peak shaving results in lower ocean temperatures relative to the overshoot scenario, inducing a stronger surface temperature response to decreasing and negative emissions, driving overshoot shortening. Our results also indicate that peak shaving with SRM would reduce the cumulative net negative emissions needed to end temperature overshoot by ∼27%. Thus, SRM, when deployed as a complement to emissions reductions and CDR, could end overshoot decades earlier than otherwise and at a substantially lower cost.

ENSO events are the most significant interannual perturbation of the climate system. Previous attempts to link ENSO with volcanic eruptions failed because only large eruptions across the globe, which typically eject tephra into the stratosphere, were considered. I have analysed all volcanic eruptions in South Eastern (SE) Asia, about 10ºS to 10ºN and 90ºE to 160ºE (4d), the most volcanically active area in the world with over 23% of all eruptions in the Global Volcanism Program database since 1500 occurring here and with 5 volcanoes stated in the literature to have erupted nearly continuously for 30 years. SE Asia is also the region where the convective arm of the thermally direct Walker Circulation occurs driven by the intense equatorial solar radiation which creates the high surface temperature. The volcanic tephra plume intercepts some of the solar radiation by absorption/reflection which cools the surface and heats the atmosphere creating a temperature inversion compared to periods without the plume. This reduces convection and causes the Walker Circulation and Trade Winds to weaken. This reduced wind speed causes the central Pacific Ocean to warm creating convection there and further weakening the Walker Circulation. With the reduced wind stress the western Pacific warm pool migrates east. This creates an ENSO event which continues until the tephra plume reduces, typically when the SE Asian monsoon commences, and convection is re-established over SE Asia and the Pacific warm pool migrates back to the west. Correlations of SE Asian tephra and the ENSO indices are typically over 0.80 at ρ < 0.02 at 5c below. In recent decades the anthropogenic SE Asian aerosol Plume (SEAP) has intensified the volcanic plume in some years from September to November (SON). Using NASA satellite data and the NASA MERRA-2 reanalysis dataset I show correlation coefficients typically over 0.70 and up to 0.99 at ρ < 0.01 between the aerosol optical depth (AOD) or aerosol index (AI) and the ENSO indices on a detrended basis in SON at 5a. If two events A and B correlate 5 options are possible: (1) A causes B; (2) B causes A; (3) C, another event, causes A & B simultaneously; (4) It’s a coincidence; and (5) The relationship is complex with feedback. The volcanic results: only allow options 1 or 4 as ENSO cannot cause volcanic eruptions; and are backed up by 4 independent satellite datasets and NASA’s MERRA-2 reanalysis which assimilates aerosol observations. I conclude volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols over SE Asia are the sole cause of all ENSO events.

Nocturnal water use (Qnight) is an important component of the eucalyptus water budget, but it has always been under-appreciated and poorly understood. To improve the accuracy of water balance estimates and understanding of the nocturnal water use process in eucalypts plantations, we conducted a 3-year study to investigate the characteristics of Qnight and its components in a Eucalyptus urophylla × E.grandis plantation in southern China. The results showed that the Qnight of E.urophylla × E.grandis was substantial and its contribution (Rnight) to daily water use (Qdaily) was on average 12.35%, with higher Rnight (14.97%) in the dry season than in the wet season (9.50%). However, the Qnight was used not only for nocturnal transpiration (Tn), but also for stem refilling (Re). Tn was influenced by a combination of vapor pressure deficit (VPD), air temperature (Ta) and relative humidity (RH), with VPD being the dominant driver. Based on this, combined with the fact that Re was closely related to diurnal variations in diameter, we have developed a novel method to distinguish Tn from Re. We found that the compositional ratios of Tn and Re differed between weather conditions and months. However, on a 3-year average, Qnight of E.urophylla × E.grandis was still mainly used for Tn (58.63%). Our results highlight the non-ignorability of Qnight and the high variability of the compositional ratios of Re and Tn, and suggest that Qnight and its components should be accurately quantified and taken into account when studying the water balance in eucalyptus stands.

Formation of surficial sulfate– and halide–bearing salts by syn–eruptive ash–gas interactions is known to occur during volcanic eruptions. For reactions between aluminosilicates and the gas SO2, at high temperature regimes (T≥ 600 °C), the controlling mechanism is the outward chemical diffusion of alkalis and alkaline earth metals, predominantly Ca2+, that result in sulfate salt formation, mostly CaSO4, on glass surfaces. However, most of the experimental research has been conducted for SO2–reactions with pure crystal–free, aluminosilicate glass, to simplify the complexities of crystal–bearing systems. Here, we tested high temperature SO2–reactions using particles of a rhyolitic, crystal–bearing dome material from a 2013 eruption of Santiaguito volcano (Guatemala), by exposing 2 g of particles to 25 sccm of SO2; at 600–800 °C, for 5–60 min each time. We then compare our results with those of previous studies using pure glass particles, aiming to determine the influence of crystal fraction and type on the occurrence and efficiency of gas–ash reactions. We conducted chemical and microscopic analysis of pre– and post–treated samples and observed that diffusion of Ca2+ is reduced in crystal–bearing samples relative to crystal–free samples at the same conditions. The rate of slow–down of the diffusion process appears to be dependent on the crystal volume fraction, providing a mechanism to account for this effect a priori. SEM images also showed that surface componentry strongly affects presence of CaSO4, as salts appear to be absent on specific surface spots corresponding to crystal phases. Our results illustrate the need for ash-gas reaction studies to further consider both the effect of bulk– and surface–componentry, in order to more accurately assess syn-eruptive gas uptake by ash.

The positive trend of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will impact the Southern Ocean’s role in Earth’s climate, however the details of the Southern Ocean’s response remain uncertain. We introduce a methodology to examine the influence of SAM on the Southern Ocean, and apply this method to a global ocean–sea-ice model run at three resolutions (1$^{\circ}$, 1/4$^{\circ}$ and 1/10$^{\circ}$). Our methodology drives perturbation simulations with realistic atmospheric forcing of extreme SAM conditions. The thermal response agrees with previous studies; positive SAM perturbations warm the upper ocean north of the windspeed maximum and cool it to the south, with the opposite response for negative SAM. The overturning circulation exhibits a rapid response that increases/decreases for positive/negative SAM perturbations and is insensitive to model resolution. The longer term adjustment of the overturning circulation, however, depends on the representation of eddies, and is faster at higher resolutions.

Fluid-filled cracks sustain a slow guided wave (Krauklis wave or crack wave) whose resonant frequencies are widely used for interpreting long period (LP) and very long period (VLP) seismic signals at active volcanoes. Significant efforts have been made to model this process using analytical developments along an infinite crack or numerical methods on simple crack geometries. In this work, we develop an efficient hybrid numerical method for computing resonant frequencies of complex-shaped fluid-filled cracks and networks of cracks and apply it to explain the ratio of spectral peaks in the VLP signals from the Fani Maoré submarine volcano that formed in Mayotte in 2018. By coupling triangular boundary elements and the finite volume method, we successfully handle complex geometries and achieve computational efficiency by discretizing solely the crack surfaces. The resonant frequencies are directly determined through eigenvalue analysis. After proper verification, we systematically analyze the resonant frequencies of rectangular and elliptical cracks, quantifying the effect of aspect ratio and crack stiffness ratio. We then discuss theoretically the contribution of fluid viscosity and seismic radiation to energy dissipation. Finally, we obtain a crack geometry that successfully explains the characteristic ratio between the first two modes of the VLP seismic signals from the Fani Maoré submarine volcano in Mayotte. Our work not only reveals rich eigenmodes in complex-shaped cracks but also contributes to illuminating the subsurface plumbing system of active volcanoes. The developed model is readily applicable to crack wave resonances in other geological settings, such as glacier hydrology and hydrocarbon reservoirs.

Managing river temperature in highly urbanized stream systems is critical for maintaining aquatic ecosystems and associated beneficial uses. Elevated river temperatures arise from warm surface inflows from impervious areas, channelization, the absence of riparian forests, and the lack of groundwater-surface water interactions. In the current work, we utilize a mechanistic river temperature model, i-Tree Cool River, to evaluate the cooling impacts of alternative ecological restoration scenarios: a) shading effects of tree planting in riparian areas and b) alternative streambed materials. The model was calibrated and validated on a 4.2 km reach of the Compton Creek in the Los Angeles (LA) River watershed, California, for low and high flow periods. The Arroyo Chub and Stickleback were considered the target species for analyzing thermal habitat suitability. River temperature simulations showed that like the ambient air temperature. The thermal response of the river in high flow periods was a function of upstream river temperature , where in low flow periods river water temperature was most affected by the tested restoration scenarios. Tree planting in the riparian corridor decreased the median thermal metrics: Max Weekly Max, Max Weekly Average, and Min Weekly Min Temperatures by an average of 3 ℃ (13%) to 20.4 ℃, 19.7 ℃, and 17.8 ℃, respectively. Using limecrete as an alternative bed material to the current concrete bottom decreased the median thermal metrics by an average of 0.9 ℃ (4%) to 22.7 ℃, 22 ℃, and 19 ℃, respectively. Combining the two scenarios decreased the river temperature metrics by an average of 4 ℃ (18%) to 18.2 ℃. Besides riparian vegetation, altering bed material is an impactful option in case of groundwater contamination and if channelized urban corridors lack the substrate to support vegetation. The use of ecological restoration scenarios resulted in summertime temperatures were within the documented spawning temperature thresholds and therefore temperature would not be a limiting factor in the potential reintroduction of the Arroyo Chub and Stickleback to Compton Creek. This tributary could be considered as a potential refuge and improved fish habitat in the LA basin during low flow periods.

Hydraulic fracturing is widely used to stimulate unconventional reservoirs, but a systematic and comprehensive investigation into the hydraulic fracturing process is rare. In this work, a discrete element-lattice Boltzmann method is implemented to simulate the hydro-mechanical behavior in a hydraulic fracturing process. Different influential factors, including injection rates, fluid viscosity, in-situ stress states, heterogeneity of rock strengths, and formation permeability, are considered and their impacts on the initiation and propagation of hydraulic fractures are evaluated. All factors have a significant impact on fracture initiation pressure. A higher injection rate, higher viscosity, and larger in-situ stress increase the initiation pressure, while a higher formation permeability and higher heterogeneity decrease the initiation pressure. Injection rates and heterogeneity degrees have significant impacts on the complexity of generated fractures. Fluid viscosity, in-situ stress states, and formation permeability do not change the geometrical complexity significantly. Hydraulic fractures are usually tensile fractures, but many tensile fractures also have shear displacement. Shear fractures are possible and the shear displacement can be significant under certain conditions, such as a high injection rate, and a high heterogeneity degree.

Ice-core-based reconstructions show that increased snow accumulation on the Antarctic Ice Sheet mitigated global sea level rise by ~ 10 mm during 1901-2000 (Medley and Thomas, 2019). Here, we attribute this trend by evaluating a suite of single-forcing, all-forcing and nudged ensembles from a climate model, along with dynamically consistent reconstructions of sea level pressure, temperature and wind from paleoclimate data assimilation (PDA). The single-forcing ensembles reveal that rising concentrations of greenhouse gasses (GHGs) have been the dominant driver of the historical snow accumulation increase, but acting alone, GHGs would have caused twice the observed increase. We investigate possible explanations for this over-prediction: a) The uncertain cooling effects of anthropogenic aerosols; b) Extreme internal variability; c) Atmospheric circulation trends; and d) Sea surface temperature (SST) trends evident in the PDA reconstructions (and observed SSTs) but not simulated by the model. The latter best explains the spatial and temporal evolution of snow accumulation, including the lack of an Antarctic-wide accumulation increase since 1980. This SST trend pattern resembles the previously modeled response to Antarctic meltwater, and its emergence coincides with the mid-Twentieth-Century onset of ice shelf thinning and retreat of Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers. Aerosols have also damped the accumulation increase and contributed to the global-scale SST pattern, which includes long-term cooling in the central tropical Pacific that cannot be explained by internal variability. Our results imply that including Antarctic meltwater in models would substantially improve projections of Antarctic snowfall, global sea level, and SSTs in the Southern Ocean and tropical Pacific.