The Maximum Entropy Theory of Ecology (METE) predicts the shapes of macroecological metrics in relatively static ecosystems using constraints imposed by static state variables. In disturbed ecosystems, however, with time-varying state variables, its predictions often fail. We extend macroecological theory from static to dynamic by combining the MaxEnt inference procedure with explicit mechanisms governing disturbance. In the static limit, the resulting theory, DynaMETE, reduces to METE but also predicts new scaling relationships among static state variables. Under disturbances, expressed as shifts in demographic, ontogenic growth, or migration rates, DynaMETE predicts the time trajectories of the state variables as well as the time-varying shapes of macroecological metrics such as the species abundance distribution and the distribution of metabolic rates over individuals. An iterative procedure for completely solving the dynamic theory is presented. In a lowest-order iteration, characteristic signatures of the deviation from static predictions of macroecolgoical patterns are shown to result from different kinds of disturbance. Because DynaMETE combines MaxEnt inference with explicit dynamical mechanisms, but does not assume any specific trait distributions over species or individuals, it is widely applicable across diverse ecosystems. This makes it a promising theory of macroecology for ecosystems responding to anthropogenic or natural disturbances.

Community composition is a primary determinant of how biodiversity change influences ecosystem functioning and, therefore, the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (BEF). We examine the consequences of community composition across six structurally realistic plant community models. We find that a positive correlation between species’ functioning in monoculture vs. their dominance in mixture with regards to a specific function (the “function-dominance correlation”) generates a positive relationship between realized diversity and ecosystem functioning across species richness treatments. However, because realised diversity declines when few species dominate, a positive function-dominance correlation generates a negative relationship between realized diversity and ecosystem functioning within species richness treatments. Removing seed inflow strengthens the link between the function-dominance correlation and BEF relationships across species richness treatments but weakens it within them. These results suggest that changes in species’ identities in a local species pool may more strongly affect ecosystem functioning than changes in species richness.

In the western United States, the population of migratory monarch butterflies is on the brink of collapse, having dropped from several million butterflies at coastal overwintering sites in the 1980’s to about 2000 butterflies in the winter of 2020-21. At the same time, a resident (non-migratory) monarch butterfly population in urban gardens seems to be expanding northward. If anything, this urban population has been growing in recent years. We explore the meaning of these changes. The new resident population is not sufficient to make up for the loss of the migratory population; there are still orders of magnitude fewer butterflies now than in the recent past. The resident population also probably lacks the demographic capacity to expand its range inland during summer months, due to higher levels of infection by a protozoan parasite, and subsequently lower survival and fecundity. Nonetheless, the resident population may have the capacity to persist. This sudden change emphasizes the extent to which environmental change can have unexpected consequences. It also demonstrates how quickly these changes can happen. We hope it will provoke discussion about how we define resilience and viability in changing environments.

Predicting which ecological factors constrain species distributions is a fundamental question in ecology and critical to forecasting geographic responses to global change. Darwin hypothesized that abiotic factors generally impose species’ high-latitude and high-elevation (typically cool) range limits, whereas biotic interactions more often impose species’ low-latitude/low-elevation (typically warm) limits, but empirical support has been mixed. Here, we clarify three predictions arising from Darwin’s hypothesis, and show that previously mixed support is partially due to researchers testing different predictions. Using a comprehensive literature review (886 range limits), we find that biotic interactions, including competition, predation, and parasitism, influenced species’ warm limits more often than species’ cool limits. At cool limits, abiotic factors were consistently more important than biotic interactions, but temperature contributed strongly to cool and warm limits. Our results suggest that most range limits will be sensitive to climate warming, but warm limit responses will depend strongly on biotic interactions.

Ecological theory suggests that predators should keep prey populations healthy by reducing parasite burdens. However, empirical studies show that predators often have minimal effects on, or even increase, parasitism in prey. To quantify the overall magnitude and direction of the effect of predation on parasitism in prey, we conducted a meta-analysis of 50 empirical studies. We also examined how key attributes of these studies, including parasite type, study design, and predator interaction type (consumptive vs. non-consumptive) contributed to variation in the predator-prey-parasite interaction. We found that the overall effect of predation on parasitism differed between parasites and parasitoids and that predator interaction type, and whether a predator was a non-host spreader of parasites were the most important traits predicting the parasite response. Our results suggest that the mechanistic basis of predator-prey interactions strongly influences the effects of predators on parasites and that these effects, while context dependent, are predictable.

Ecological processes in food webs depend on species interactions. By identifying broad-scaled interaction patterns, important information on species ecological roles may be revealed. Here, we use the group model to examine how spatial resolution and proximity influence the group structure. We examine a dataset from the Barents Sea, with species occurrences for both the whole region and 25 subregions. Specifically, we test how the group structure in the networks differ comparing i) the regional metaweb to subregions and ii) subregion to subregion. We find that more than half the species in the metaweb change groups when compared to subregions. Between subregions, networks with similar group structure are usually spatially related. Interestingly, although species overlap is important for similarity in group structure, there are notable exceptions. Our results highlight that species ecological roles differ depending on fine-scaled differences in patterns of interactions, and that local network characteristics are important to consider.

A recent review on optimal strategies for preserving biodiversity within human-modified landscapes suggests that that forest cover needs to be restored or maintained to at least 40%. While we agree that it is paramount to protect and increase cover in forested biomes, no evidence is presented to support this 40% threshold. Furthermore, there are several issues regarding implementation of such policy or social-economic constraints that makes this suggestion unhelpful and potentially dangerous.

Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are embedded within complex socio-ecological systems. While research has traditionally focused on direct effects of VBDs on morbidity and mortality, it is increasingly clear that VBD impacts are much more pervasive, dynamically linked to feedbacks between environmental conditions, vector ecology, disease burden, and societal responses that drive transmission. VBDs have had profound influence on human history via mechanisms that include: (1) killing or debilitating large numbers of people, with direct demographic and population-level impacts; (2) differentially affecting populations based on prior history of disease exposure, immunity, and resistance; (3) being weaponized to promote or justify existing hierarchies of power, colonialism, racism, classism, and sexism; (4) catalyzing changes in ideas, institutions, infrastructure, technologies, and social practices in efforts to control disease outbreaks; and (5) changing human relationships with the land and environment. We use historical and archaeological evidence interpreted through an ecological lens to illustrate how four major VBDs have shaped society and culture: plague, malaria, yellow fever, and trypanosomiasis. By comparing across diseases, time periods, and geographies, this review highlights the enormous scope and variety of mechanisms by which VBDs have influenced human history from the age of early Homo sapiens to the modern context.

Banks-Leite et al. (2021) claim that our suggestion of preserving ≥40% forest cover lacks evidence and can be problematic. We find these claims unfounded, and discuss why conservation planning urgently requires valuable, well-supported, and feasible general guidelines like the 40% criterion. Using region-specific thresholds worldwide is unfeasible and potentially harmful.

Emerging infectious diseases have resulted in severe population declines across diverse taxa. In some instances, despite attributes associated with high extinction risk, disease emergence and host declines are followed by host stabilization for reasons that are frequently unclear. While host, pathogen, and the environment are recognized as important factors that interact to determine host-pathogen coexistence, they are often considered independently. Here, we use a translocation experiment to disentangle the role of host traits and environmental conditions in driving the persistence of remnant populations a decade after they declined 70-99% and subsequently stabilized with disease. While survival was significantly higher than during the initial epidemic within all sites, protection from severe disease only existed within a narrow environmental space, suggesting host traits conducive to surviving disease are highly environmentally dependent. Ultimately, population persistence following pathogen invasion is the product of host-pathogen interactions that vary across a patchwork of environments.

Studies of populations oscillating through time have a long history in ecology as these dynamics can help provide insights into the causes of population regulation. A particularly difficult challenge is determining the relative role of deterministic versus stochastic forces in producing this oscillatory behavior. Another classic ecological study area is the study of spatial synchrony which also has helped unravel underlying population dynamic principles. One possible approach to understanding the causes of population cycles is based on the idea that a focus on spatiotemporal behavior, oscillations in coupled populations, can provide much further insight into the relative role of deterministic versus stochastic forces. Using ideas based on concepts from statistical physics, we develop results showing that in a system with coupling between adjacent populations, a study of spatial synchrony provides much information about the underlying causes of oscillations. Novel, to ecology, measures of spatial synchrony are a key step.

Seed limitation can narrow down the number of coexisting plant species and limit plant community productivity. It is also likely to constrain community responses to changing environmental and biotic conditions. In a 10-year full-factorial experiment of seed addition, fertilisation, warming and herbivore exclusion, we tested how seed addition alters community richness and biomass, and how its effects depend on seed origin and environmental and biotic context. We found that seed addition increased richness in all treatments, and increased community biomass depending on nutrient addition and warming. Novel seeded species, originally absent from the communities, increased biomass the most, especially in fertilised plots and in the absence of herbivores, while adding seeds of local species did not affect biomass. Our results show that dispersal limitation can constrain the invasion of novel species and their effects on community biomass, and demonstrate that these relationships are contingent on trophic interactions and environmental conditions.

Microbial life in an ecosystem with low energy supply has been considered to employ two energy utilization strategies. The first is energy conservation at an individual level, while the second is energy use optimization in response to the availability of energy resources. Here, using an oxidation-reduction (redox) reaction network model where microbial metabolic pathways are established through multiple species-level competition and cooperation within a redox reaction network, we hypothesize that microbial ecosystems can move forward to increase energy use efficiency, namely an energy efficiency strategy at the community level. This strategy is supported by microbial functional diversity that enables species to interact with others in various ways of metabolic handoffs. Moreover, the high energy use efficiency is attributable to the mutualistic division of labor that increases the complexity of metabolic pathways, which actively drives material cycling to exploit more energy.

Grassland ecosystems account for more than 10% of the global CH4 sink in soils. A 4-year field experiment found that addition of P alone did not affect CH4 uptake and experimental addition of N alone significantly suppressed CH4 uptake, while concurrent N and P additions suppressed CH4 uptake to a lesser degree. A meta-analysis including 382 data points in global grasslands corroborated these findings. Global extrapolation with an empirical modeling approach estimated that contemporary N addition suppresses CH4 sink in global grassland by 11% and concurrent N and P deposition alleviates this suppression by 6%. The P alleviation of N-suppressed CH4 sink is primarily attributed to substrate competition, defined as the competition between ammonium and CH4 for the methane monooxygenase enzyme. The N and P impacts on CH4 uptake indicate that projected increases in N and P depositions might substantially affect CH4 uptake and alter the global CH4 cycle.

Ant Forest, a mobile app by the monolithic Alibaba Group, is greening individuals' daily activities and transforming human capacity to reverse global environmental degradation. Over 500 million e-trees being cultivated every day in China using Ant Forest. Over 122 million trees planted over more than 112,000 ha of degraded land areas. This is a showcase of how innovation via internet technology combined with digital finance is contributing to solving environmental issues, also the potential to match an individual's daily footprint to their digital footprint and converting this to an ecological footprint.

Ecological research is highlighting different kinds of issues concerning biodiversity conservation policies. Based on a historical study on protected areas, we suggest that these issues are not caused by a lack of knowledge or technical tools but rather by a misuse of ecological knowledge during the implementation of policy instruments. We strongly believe that determining the conditions under which ecological science can enlighten policy decisions is now necessary to address current biodiversity conservation issues. This can only be achieved through the promotion of interdisciplinary research.

Extreme weather events have become a dominant feature of the narrative surrounding changes in global climate. with large impacts on ecosystem stability, functioning and resilience, however, understanding of their risk of co-occurrence at the regional scale is lacking. Based on the UK Met Office's long-term temperature and rainfall records, we present the first evidence demonstrating significant increases in the magnitude, direction of change and spatial co-localization of extreme weather events since 1961. Combining this new understanding with land use datasets allowed us to assess the likely consequences on future agricultural production and conservation priority areas. All land uses are impacted by the increasing risk of at least one extreme event and conservation areas were identified as hotspots of risk for the co-occurrence of multiple event types. Our findings provide a basis to regionally guide land use optimisation, land management practices and regulatory actions preserving ecosystem services against multiple climate threats.

Natural systems are always fluctuating: no two years are identical, with population and community sizes varying from one year to the next. Such variation has led to “equilibrium” becoming almost a dirty word in ecology. Some researchers see the world as being in permanent flux, and consider our field’s historical focus on equilibria as out-dated. But this view is flawed, is driven by current day observations of a world out of kilter, and risks downplaying the risks of ongoing anthropogenic change to civilisation and perhaps too to life on Earth. In this viewpoint, I mount a defence for equilibria.