Salt Marsh Productivity Modeling Reveals Widespread Declining
Belowground Biomass and Potential for Marsh Drowning
Abstract
Salt marshes offer important ecosystem services to coastal
populations and are key organismal habitats, but are under threat as a
result of drowning related to sea level rise. The extent to which any
given marsh is resilient to sea level rise depends on its ability to
produce vertical accretion. This is primarily driven by belowground
biomass (BGB) production, which explains why BGB may serve as an early
warning sign of vulnerability to marsh drowning. Declines in
plant productivity may occur in BGB before aboveground biomass (AGB),
indicating that BGB may serve as an early warning sign of vulnerability
to marsh drowning. However, landscape assessments of BGB are rare, as
BGB is difficult to measure and has high spatiotemporal variability. The
Belowground Ecosystem Resiliency Model (BERM) is a geospatial
informatics tool to estimate whole-plant biomass (AGB and BGB) with
satellite, climate, tide, and elevation data at a 30 m spatial scale and
monthly time step. BERM was built using machine learning algorithms and
extensive ground-truth calibration datasets in U.S. Georgia
Spartina alterniflora marshes.
Here, we aimed to characterize landscape salt marsh
resilience with BERM. To do this, we generated
S. alterniflora AGB and BGB predictions
across the Georgia coast, covering an area of 691
km2, from 2014-2023 and
identified biomass trends. We found broad
declines in BGB alongside gains in AGB. A total
of 74% of the marsh experienced a decrease in BGB, with an average
annual trend of -0.91%. Simultaneously, 88% of the marsh increased in
AGB at an average rate of 0.66% per year. We classified much of the
marsh (27% of area) as vulnerable to drowning (defined as a decline in
BGB that exceeded model error). We also investigated biomass trends
against flooding frequency, where flooding was derived via a remote
sensing-based model. BGB losses were greater with increasing flooding
frequencies, suggesting that accelerated SLR will
further reduce productivity. Based
on BERM predictions, early stage marsh drowning is likely
widespread, and management actions to conserve ecosystem services are an
urgent need.