Fire regimes of Southeastern Africa are better predicted by Sentinel-2
than MODIS
Abstract
High-resolution time series of burned area (BA) derived from Sentinel-2
can advance understanding of the determinants and dynamics of fire by
incorporating small fires previously excluded from regional analyses.
Here, we assessed the drivers of fire frequency, fire size, and fire
seasonality across Southeastern Africa via fine (Sentinel-2 MSI) and
moderate (MODIS) spatial resolution data. Twenty-six predictors of
ignition patterns, fuel load, flammability, and fire spread—factors
that underpin fire frequency, size, and seasonality—were incorporated
into machine learning models to evaluate their predictive capacity,
relative importance, and directional relationships with fire regime
attributes. We found large differences between fine and moderate
resolution mapping in the estimates of fire frequency, size, and to a
lesser extent, seasonality, with models using Sentinel-2 having better
predictive performance. However, the relationships between fire regime
attributes and predictors were generally consistent between sensors. We
found that high fire frequency was associated with fuel load and
seasonality and that interannual stability in land cover, livestock
density and human population, was associated with low fire frequency.
Fire sizes were generally small in both the high and low extremes of the
precipitation and vegetation productivity gradient, and in highly
transformed areas. The fraction of fire outside of the fire season was
higher under low seasonality conditions and under higher human
influence. Our results demonstrate the applicability of existing theory
of fire dynamics found on moderate resolution data to new fine scale
data while providing nuanced insights into fire regime determinants in
increasingly transformed landscapes.