Ensemble-based data assimilation improves hyperresolution snowpack
simulations in forests.
Abstract
Snowpack dynamics play a key role in controlling hydrological and
ecological processes at various scales, but snow monitoring remains
problematic. Data assimilation techniques are emerging as promising
tools to improve uncertain snowpack simulations by fusing
state-of-the-art numerical models with information rich, but noisy
observations. However, the occlusion of the ground below the forest
canopy limits the retrieval of snowpack information from remote sensing
tools. Thus, remote sensing observations in these environments are
spatially incomplete, impeding the implementation of fully distributed
data assimilation techniques. Here we propose different experiments to
propagate the information obtained in forest clearings, where it is
possible to retrieve observations, towards the sub-canopy, where the
point of view of remote sensors is occluded. The experiments were
conducted in forests within Sagehen Creek watershed (California, USA),
by updating simulations conducted with the Flexible Snow Model (FSM2)
with airborne lidar snow data using the Multiple Snow data Assimilation
system (MuSA). The successful experiments improved the reference
simulations significantly both in terms of validation metrics
(correlation coefficient from R=0.1 to R ~0.8 in average)
and spatial patterns. Both data assimilation configurations, using
geographical distances or a space of topographical dimensions, managed
to improve the reference run. However, those creating a space of
synthetic coordinates by combining the spatiotemporal data assimilation
with a principal components analysis did not show any improvement, even
degrading some validation metrics. Future data assimilation initiatives
would benefit from building specific localization functions that are
able to model the spatial snowpack relationships at different
resolutions.