Improving Streamflow Predictions in the Arid Southwestern United States
Through Understanding of Baseflow Generation Mechanisms
Abstract
Understanding factors controlling baseflow (or groundwater discharge) is
critical for improving streamflow prediction skills in the arid
southwest US. We used a version of Noah-MP with newly-advanced hydrology
features and the Routing Application for Parallel computation of
Discharge (RAPID) to investigate the impacts of uncertainties in
representations of hydrological processes, soil hydraulic parameters,
and precipitation data on baseflow production and streamflow prediction
skill. We conducted model experiments by combining different options of
hydrological processes, hydraulic parameters, and precipitation datasets
in the southwest US. These experiments were driven by three gridded
precipitation products: the NLDAS-2, the IMERG Final, and AORC. RAPID
was then used to route Noah-MP modeled surface and subsurface runoff to
predict daily streamflow at 390 USGS gauges. We evaluated the modeled
ratio of baseflow to total streamflow (or baseflow index, BFI) against
those derived from the USGS streamflow. Our results suggest that 1) soil
water retention curve model plays a dominant role, with the
Van-Genuchten hydraulic scheme reducing the overestimated BFI produced
by the Brooks-Corey (also used by the National Water Model, NWM), 2)
hydraulic parameters strongly affect streamflow prediction, a machine
learning-based dataset captures the USGS BFI, showing a better
performance than the optimized NWM by a median KGE of 21%, and 3) the
ponding depth threshold that increases infiltration is preferred.
Overall, most of our models with the advanced hydrology show a better
performance in modeling BFI and thus a better skill in streamflow
predictions than the optimized NWM in the dry southwestern river basins.