Reduced winter-time Clear Air Turbulence in the trans-Atlantic region
under Stratospheric Aerosol Injection
Abstract
Clear air turbulence (CAT) is a safety threat within the aviation sector
and is projected to worsen under global warming. Stratospheric aerosol
injection (SAI) is a climate intervention strategy that aims to
ameliorate climate change by artificially cooling Earth. Climate model
simulations have found a side-effect of SAI would be a strengthening of
the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This links
to a stronger North Atlantic jet stream and suggests enhanced CAT in the
region. Here, we analyse simulations from the UKESM1 climate model to
evaluate the impact of a realistic SAI application on winter-time
trans-Atlantic CAT. We find a 23 % decrease in severe CAT frequency
under SAI when compared to a baseline high-end global warming scenario.
Our results indicate that the amelioration of global warming under SAI
has a more dominant impact on CAT over the North Atlantic than residual
impacts to the NAO.