Interannual Variability of Tropical Cyclone Landfalls in the Eastern
North Pacific: Environmental Drivers and Implications
Abstract
Despite its high tropical cyclone (TC) density, the Eastern North
Pacific (ENP) basin has received relatively little research attention on
landfall variability. This study investigates the climatological
seasonal cycle and interannual variability of TC landfalls in the ENP.
We find that the basin is characterized by a bimodal distribution of
landfalls, with peaks in June and September–October. Using a composite
analysis of high and low landfall years, we show that this distribution
is primarily driven by landfall probability rather than genesis. The
absence of landfalls during July is due to enhanced easterlies from the
Caribbean Low-Level Jet entering the ENP through gaps in the Americas
Cordillera. High landfall years feature enhanced easterly wind reversals
from a northward-shifted Intertropical Convergence Zone. These
additional steering winds drive hurricanes ashore in the vulnerable
region of southwest Mexico. This study provides valuable insights for
improving TC landfall forecasts and preparedness in the region.