Dual-Transformer Deep Learning Framework for Seasonal Forecasting of
Great Lakes Water Levels
Abstract
The Great Lakes of North America form one of the largest freshwater
systems on Earth, exhibiting seasonal water level fluctuations that
exceed 0.5 meters. These fluctuations pose substantial challenges for
coastal resilience, flood risk management, and navigation planning.
Accurate seasonal forecasting of lake levels using traditional
mechanistic models is challenging due to the complex physical mechanisms
and coupled hydroclimatic processes involved. Recently, deep learning
has gained prominence in geoscience applications for its ability to
recognize intricate patterns within multiphysical datasets. Here, we
introduce a novel Dual-Transformer deep learning framework, tested on
Lake Superior—the largest of the five Great Lakes. This architecture
integrates two modified Transformer models: the Prophet, which predicts
underlying trends, and the Critic, which refines the Prophet’s
predictions. The final lake level prediction is derived by weighting the
outputs of both models through a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), jointly
trained with the Prophet and Critic to enhance overall accuracy. Our
results demonstrate that the Dual-Transformer model, which uses seven
atmospheric and lake features, achieves unprecedented accuracy in
seasonal forecasting in the testing dataset, attaining a correlation
coefficient of 0.97 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 4 cm for
forecasts up to six months ahead. Additionally, the Dual-Transformer
model runs six orders of magnitude faster than conventional mechanistic
models, producing results in less than one second on a typical personal
computer. These findings suggest our deep learning framework provides an
efficient and reliable tool for real-time lake level forecasting, with
significant implications for water management and disaster mitigation.