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Apparent Changes in Pacific Decadal Variability Caused by Anthropogenically-Induced Mean State Modulations
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  • Chen Xing,
  • Samantha Stevenson,
  • Emanuele Di Lorenzo,
  • Matthew Newman,
  • Antonietta Capotondi,
  • John T. Fasullo,
  • Nicola Maher
Chen Xing
University of California, Santa Barbara

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Samantha Stevenson
University of California, Santa Barbara
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Emanuele Di Lorenzo
Brown University
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Matthew Newman
NOAA/PSL
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Antonietta Capotondi
University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/PSL
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John T. Fasullo
National Center for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)
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Nicola Maher
Australian National University, Canberra
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Abstract

Pacific decadal variability (PDV), low-frequency changes in Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), significantly impacts global climate. However, disentangling anthropogenic effects upon PDV is challenging since both vary on similar time scales. Using single-forcing climate model large ensembles, we find that anthropogenic forcing primarily drives a spatially-varying pattern of mean-state change in North Pacific SST that project onto leading PDV patterns, principally the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO). In fact, when the trend is determined by the model ensemble mean, there is no forced change of the PDV modes. However, analysis of single model realizations, where the mean-state trend cannot be cleanly identified, suggests an apparent anthropogenic change in NPGO decadal variability. This suggests that observed PDV responses to anthropogenic forcing may be erroneously convolved with the background trend pattern. Therefore, correctly determining the mean-state trend is a necessary precursor for identifying forced changes to PDV.
13 Nov 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
14 Nov 2024Published in ESS Open Archive