Apparent Changes in Pacific Decadal Variability Caused by
Anthropogenically-Induced Mean State Modulations
Abstract
Pacific decadal variability (PDV), low-frequency changes in Pacific sea
surface temperatures (SSTs), significantly impacts global climate.
However, disentangling anthropogenic effects upon PDV is challenging
since both vary on similar time scales. Using single-forcing climate
model large ensembles, we find that anthropogenic forcing primarily
drives a spatially-varying pattern of mean-state change in North Pacific
SST that project onto leading PDV patterns, principally the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO). In
fact, when the trend is determined by the model ensemble mean, there is
no forced change of the PDV modes. However, analysis of single model
realizations, where the mean-state trend cannot be cleanly identified,
suggests an apparent anthropogenic change in NPGO decadal variability.
This suggests that observed PDV responses to anthropogenic forcing may
be erroneously convolved with the background trend pattern. Therefore,
correctly determining the mean-state trend is a necessary precursor for
identifying forced changes to PDV.