Sensitivity of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink to a rapid increase and
subsequent decrease of atmospheric CO2
Abstract
Despite the importance of the Southern Ocean carbon sink, its response
to future atmospheric CO2 perturbations and warming remains highly
uncertain. In this study, we use six state-of-the-art Earth system
models to assess the response of Southern Ocean air-sea CO2 fluxes
(FCO2) to a rapid atmospheric forcing increase and subsequent negative
emissions in an idealized carbon dioxide removal reversibility
experiment. We find that during positive emissions, the region north of
the Polar Front only takes up atmospheric CO2 for 30-50 years before
reaching equilibrium; surface stratification and reduction of CO2
solubility with warming diminishes ocean CO2 uptake in this region. In
contrast, south of the Polar Front, the upper ocean continues to take up
CO2 until the end of positive emissions at 140 years. Sea-ice loss and
the accumulation of anthropogenic dissolved inorganic carbon in the
upper ocean reduce the upwelling-driven seasonal CO2 outgassing, leading
to a stronger Antarctic CO2 sink. CO2 removal triggers a CO2 uptake
reduction that slowly converts the Southern Ocean into a CO2 source
which persists for at least 50 years post-mitigation. Furthermore, we
find that model sensitivity to atmospheric perturbation is closely
linked to seasonal FCO2 dynamics. Specifically, models with a thermally
dominated pCO2 seasonal cycle exhibit nearly twice the sensitivity to
atmospheric perturbations compared to non-thermal models. Our findings
further emphasize the necessity of accurate model representation of the
seasonal CO2 dynamics for appropriately simulating the future Southern
Ocean carbon sink.