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Unified Forecast System Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and East Pacific Teleconnections During Boreal Summer
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  • Yu Cian Tsai,
  • Eric Daniel Maloney,
  • Daehyun Kim,
  • Suzana J Camargo
Yu Cian Tsai
Colorado State University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Eric Daniel Maloney
Colorado State University
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Daehyun Kim
Seoul National University
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Suzana J Camargo
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University
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Abstract

This study evaluates the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction skill of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and its remote impacts on the east Pacific (EP) tropical cyclogenesis in the Unified Forecast System (UFS) during boreal summer (May–October). Utilizing four experimental versions, Prototypes 5-8, the study finds that although the UFS generally captures the MJO’s propagation characteristics near the initialization time, it encounters difficulty in accurately predicting the propagation speed and decay rate of the MJO beyond 15 days. Specifically, the phase transition rate of the MJO in the UFS is slower than observed, although this behavior is improved in Prototype 8. The UFS overestimates anomalies in the intraseasonal east Pacific genesis potential index anomalies associated with MJO phases. Analysis of the vertically integrated moist static energy (MSE) budget reveals that all four UFS prototypes underestimate the damping effect of vertical MSE advection and the amplifying effect of longwave radiative heating, indicating weaknesses in tropical convective parameterization and cloud radiative feedbacks, although these biases are somewhat improved in Prototype 8. These deficiencies result in less efficient vertical MSE export, weaker damping of MJO convection, slow MJO propagation, and delayed MJO remote impacts on the EP. Thus, improving the UFS’ ability to simulate MJO propagation and maintenance processes is crucial for better predicting the MJO’s remote effects on EP TC genesis and enhancing S2S forecast capability for such extreme events.
09 Nov 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
10 Nov 2024Published in ESS Open Archive