Unified Forecast System Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and
East Pacific Teleconnections During Boreal Summer
Abstract
This study evaluates the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction skill
of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and its remote impacts on the
east Pacific (EP) tropical cyclogenesis in the Unified Forecast System
(UFS) during boreal summer (May–October). Utilizing four experimental
versions, Prototypes 5-8, the study finds that although the UFS
generally captures the MJO’s propagation characteristics near the
initialization time, it encounters difficulty in accurately predicting
the propagation speed and decay rate of the MJO beyond 15 days.
Specifically, the phase transition rate of the MJO in the UFS is slower
than observed, although this behavior is improved in Prototype 8. The
UFS overestimates anomalies in the intraseasonal east Pacific genesis
potential index anomalies associated with MJO phases. Analysis of the
vertically integrated moist static energy (MSE) budget reveals that all
four UFS prototypes underestimate the damping effect of vertical MSE
advection and the amplifying effect of longwave radiative heating,
indicating weaknesses in tropical convective parameterization and cloud
radiative feedbacks, although these biases are somewhat improved in
Prototype 8. These deficiencies result in less efficient vertical MSE
export, weaker damping of MJO convection, slow MJO propagation, and
delayed MJO remote impacts on the EP. Thus, improving the UFS’ ability
to simulate MJO propagation and maintenance processes is crucial for
better predicting the MJO’s remote effects on EP TC genesis and
enhancing S2S forecast capability for such extreme events.