Inhomogeneous Spatio-Temporal Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence Model
Incorporating Seismicity-Triggering Slow Slip Events
Abstract
Clarifying the relationship between regular earthquakes and slow fault
slip is essential for understanding the mechanisms behind seismic
activity. We hypothesize that the background seismic activity around the
Guerrero seismic gap in Mexico is partially triggered by interplate
slow-slip events (SSEs). Consequently, we present an extension of the
spatio-temporal epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, which
incorporates background seismicity as a piecewise constant function over
time. In this study, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data is
employed to identify the occurrence periods of SSEs, thereby delineating
the intervals during which changes in background seismicity may occur.
Due to the technical complexity of performing inference with an
inhomogeneous ETAS model, this work employs a penalized maximum
likelihood inference method using the Expectation-Maximization (EM)
algorithm. This approach also permits the inference of the branching
process for aftershocks, thus enabling the estimation of the genealogy
between earthquakes. This information could be utilized to decluster
earthquakes. This study elucidates how the background seismicity
increases during the periods of the Guerrero SSEs, which allows for a
more comprehensive understanding of seismic activity and the
relationship between slow and fast earthquakes in Mexico. Our new model
can be applied not only in Mexico but also at plate boundaries worldwide
to quantify the impact of SSEs on seismic activity.