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Assessing the intensity of heatwaves in a warming climate at the urban scale: A case study of the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona
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  • Sergi Ventura,
  • Josep-Ramon Miró,
  • Ricard Segura,
  • Fei Chen,
  • Alberto Martilli,
  • Changhai Liu,
  • Kyoko Ikeda,
  • Gara Villalba
Sergi Ventura
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
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Josep-Ramon Miró
Meteorological Service of Catalonia
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Ricard Segura
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
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Fei Chen
The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
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Alberto Martilli
CIEMAT
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Changhai Liu
National Center for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)
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Kyoko Ikeda
National Center for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)
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Gara Villalba
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Abstract

Given that more than half of the world’s population currently resides in cities, further understanding of the potential impact of future climate change on urban areas is needed. In this regard, we project recent heatwave (HW) episodes in the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona (AMB) with future climate conditions until 2100 using the pseudo global warming (PGW) method. First, we determine all the HWs that occurred in the AMB during the last climatological period of 30 years (1991-2020) and simulate each individual event using the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model at high-resolution. Then, these historical HW events are re-simulated with the modified atmospheric conditions of the mid-century (2041-2070) and the end-of-the-century (2071-2100) according to the scenario SSP370, in which CO2 emissions are projected to almost double from current levels by 2100 following a low emission reduction scenario. HW intensity is expected to increase by 2.5 °C and 4.2 °C in the mid- and end-of-the-century periods, respectively. Higher temperatures are related to stationary and stable synoptic patterns, which are projected to experience the greatest intensification in the future. The geopotential height at 500 hPa could increase up to 100 geopotential meters (gpm) by the end of the century, leading to values up to 6050 gpm, which indicates changes in thermodynamic and dynamic effects resulting in potentially warmer HW episodes. The results obtained can aid in understanding the expected changes for this century, which could facilitate the formulation of heat mitigation and adaptation strategies, particularly for the most exposed areas.
31 Oct 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
01 Nov 2024Published in ESS Open Archive