Biases in Climate Model Global Warming Trends Related to Deficiencies in
Southern Ocean Sea Ice Evolution Over Recent Decades
Abstract
Between 1985 and 2014 observations show an expansion of Southern Ocean
sea ice. This phenomena is not simulated in CMIP6 Atmosphere-Ocean
General Circulation Model (AOGCM) simulations, nor in a large ensemble
of HadGEM3-GC3.1-LL simulations. Here we quantify the impact of this
discrepancy on radiative feedback and global temperature trends. We find
that both satellite reconstructions of the Earth’s energy budget and
atmosphere-only GCM simulations forced with observed SST and sea-ice
trends support the idea that the expansion of sea-ice led to a negative
surface albedo feedback over the Southern Ocean. In contrast, the
decline of sea-ice in AOGCMs gives rise to a positive feedback. We
estimate that, had the AOGCMs warmed with the observed Southern Ocean
sea-ice evolution, their global feedback parameter would be less
positive, by 0.15 to 0.36 Wm−2K−1, and their global temperature trends
reduced by 0.072 to 0.02 K per decade over this period.