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Predicting Solar Flare Activity of Solar Cycle 25 Using GOES Soft X-ray Flux and Chromospheric Flare Index via the Improved Informer-based Models
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  • Jie Cao,
  • Tingting Xu,
  • Linhua Deng,
  • Miao Wan,
  • Yang Peng,
  • Xueliang Zhou,
  • Lidong Huang,
  • Wengcheng Wang,
  • Lei Yang,
  • Weihong Zhou
Jie Cao
Yunnan Minzu University
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Tingting Xu
Yunnan Minzu University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Linhua Deng
Yunnan Minzu University
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Miao Wan
Yunnan Minzu University
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Yang Peng
Hebei University of Science and Technology
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Xueliang Zhou
Yunnan Minzu University
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Lidong Huang
Yunnan Minzu University
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Wengcheng Wang
Yunnan Minzu University
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Lei Yang
Yunnan Minzu University
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Weihong Zhou
Yunnan Minzu University
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Abstract

Solar flares are major manifestations of solar activity, characterized by intense radiation and particle emissions that affect the entire solar system. High-accurate prediction of solar flare events for solar cycle 25 is crucial for understanding and mitigating these effects. In this work, we used soft X-ray flux from the GOES satellites and the chromospheric flare index to predict solar flare activity for solar cycle 25. Our results show that: (1) There is a temporal and intensity asymmetry between the northern and southern hemispheres, with the southern hemisphere showing greater flare activity during solar cycle 25. (2) Flare activity exhibits Gnevyshev peaks, and the double-peak structures are more prominent than other atmospheric layers. The Gnevyshev peaks may be related to the different timescales of the solar flare responses to the geomagnetic field and the interplanetary magnetic field. (3) Chromospheric flare activity lags behind photospheric sunspot activity. This phase lag phenomenon may be related to the magnetic energy storage in the corona, indicating that changes in sunspot activity occur before flare activity. (4) The activity level of solar cycle 25 will be more pronounced than that of solar cycle 24. This phenomenon may be related to the modulation effect of the Gleissberg cycle, which has been validated by geomagnetic precursor indices. Our results provide valuable insights into the temporal and spatial distribution of solar flare activity during solar cycle 25.
20 Oct 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
21 Oct 2024Published in ESS Open Archive