Probabilistic Assessment of the Causes of Active Deformation in Greece,
Western Anatolia, and the Balkans Using Finite Element Models
Abstract
We use a mechanical model in the context of Bayesian inference to
constrain the relative contribution of driving and resistive regional
forces to the observed surface deformation. The finite element model
straddles the Nubian-Eurasia plate boundary, is viscoelastic, and has
fault zones representing regional active faults. Deformation is driven
by velocities of surrounding plates and by lateral variations in
gravitational potential energy in all models. The magnitudes of slab
pull and trench suction at subduction zones, and of active
asthenospheric convection are search parameters. Velocities of our
median model fit the observations very well. Slip directions agree with
focal mechanisms on most model fault zones. Slip rakes and rates agree
only partly with results from previous block modeling studies. We find
that significant trench suction forces are required on all trenches.
Slab pull is irrelevant, and convective shear tractions have a small
imprint on the observed deformation of the overriding plate. The average
viscosity of the Eurasian lithosphere is 1.5(±0.5)x1022 Pa.s. Resistive
shear traction rates are small along all plate boundary segments, except
the Kephalonia fault zone. Shear traction rates are significant along
all intraplate fault zones, except the northern branch of the North
Anatolian Fault zone. We propose a novel way to estimate the rate at
which fault zones accumulate slip deficit. We find that slip deficit
rates on model faults range between 1.2 and 4.5 mm/yr.