A model study exploring the decision loop between unilateral
stratospheric aerosol injection scenario design and Earth system
simulations
Abstract
Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is being discussed as a possible
approach to reduce future global warming in addition to emission cuts,
and various scenarios and Earth system model (ESM) experiments have been
developed to explore its effectiveness and risks. However, given the
complicated geopolitical, economic, and strategic considerations among
countries, global cooperation in SAI deployment will be challenging.
Alternatively, unilateral SAI deployment has been highlighted as an
important research topic but is still less explored in scenario design
and ESM studies. Inspired by the game theory model introduced by Bell
and Keys (2023) and their newly developed framework of identifying
geopolitically plausible SAI initiator(s), this paper builds a framework
for integrating unilateral SAI scenario design, geopolitical game
theory, ESM simulation, and climate analyses into one decision loop.
Using the decision loop, we design and simulate a geopolitically
plausible scenario of the initiation of unilateral SAI using CESM, and
explore two independent plausible unilateral SAI reaction scenarios
following the climate storylines under the initiator scenario. Our work
demonstrates an approach to explore the complex feedback loop between
unilateral SAI deployment scenarios and the simulation of the subsequent
climate storylines.