Regional aspects of the recent observed trends in the Western
Mediterranean: Insights from a Timescale Decomposition Analysis
Abstract
The observed warming in the Western Mediterranean (WMed) region over
recent decades is projected to continue, outpacing the global average,
making the region a prominent climate change hotspot. Even within this
relatively small area, the combination of natural climate variability
and anthropogenic climate change creates significant spatial variation
in extreme climate events. This study analyzes temperature and
precipitation trends in the WMed using ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) data
from 1951 to 2020 taking into consideration the climatic heterogeneity
of the region. A non-hierarchical K-Means clustering method was applied
to delineate nine climatically homogeneous regions within the WMed. A
timescale decomposition analysis was then conducted to disentangle
long-term, decadal, and interannual variability components of seasonal
data. Results indicate that long-term trends explain most of the total
observed variance in temperature (~65%), while
interannual natural variability dominates observed precipitation
(~60%). These patterns vary seasonally, with the
strongest warming trends along the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian
Peninsula and northern Africa in summer and the most significant drying
trends in the southwestern Mediterranean during both summer and winter.
The influence of different modes of natural climate variability in the
observed trends is assessed and appears to contribute to winter drying,
but no evidence was found of its influence on warming trends. This study
lays a foundation for future climate change detection and attribution
efforts in the WMed, emphasizing the need for sub-regional analysis due
to the region’s pronounced heterogeneity.