Machine Learning and Big Data Mining Reveal Earth’s Deep Time Crustal
Thickness and Tectonic Evolution: A New Chemical Mohometry Approach
Abstract
Quantitative analysis of crustal thickness evolution across past
geological periods poses significant challenges but provides invaluable
insights into the planet’s geological history. It may help uncover new
areas with potential critical mineral deposits and reveal the impacts of
crustal thickness and elevation changes on the development of the
atmosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere. However, a significant knowledge
gap in reconstructing regional paleo-crustal thickness distribution is
that most estimation proxies are limited to arc-related magmas. By
mining extensive geochemical data from present-day subduction zones,
collision orogenic belts, and non-subduction-related intraplate igneous
rock samples worldwide, along with their corresponding Moho depths
during magmatism, we have developed a machine learning-based mohometry
linking geochemical data to Moho depth, which is universally applicable
in reconstructing ancient orogenic systems’ paleo-crustal evolution and
tracking complex tectonic histories in both spatial and temporal
dimensions. Our novel mohometry model demonstrates robust performance,
achieving an R² of 0.937 and RMSE of 4.3 km. Feature importance
filtering highlights key geochemical proxies, allowing for accurate
paleo-crustal thickness estimation even when many elements are missing.
The mohometry validity is demonstrated through applications to southern
Tibet, which has well-constrained paleo-crustal thicknesses, and the
South China Block, which is noted for its complex tectonic evolution and
extensive 800-km-wide Cretaceous extensional system. Additionally, the
evolution of reconstructed paleo-crustal thickness, particularly in
areas with anomalously thick crust, strongly correlates with porphyry
ore deposits. These findings offer valuable insights for prospecting for
new porphyry ore deposits, particularly in ancient orogens where
significant surface erosion has occurred.