A machine learning tool for determining the required sample size for GEV
fitting in climate applications
Abstract
Extreme climate events (ECEs) like fires, floods, and heatwaves
significantly impact people, communities and the environment and climate
change is modifying their occurrence. Generalised Extreme Value (GEV)
distributions are used to quantify the magnitude and occurrence of ECEs
and guide human system design (e.g. the return value of extreme wind
gust sets construction codes at a given location). We train a Machine
Learning (ML) model utilising a suite of GEV distributions to determine
the sample size required to estimate return values to an arbitrary
uncertainty. For the typical GEV parameters for heat and rainfall
extremes, accurate estimates of the return values can require a large
sample size. If regional climate model projections aim to characterise
the magnitude and occurrence of ECEs, a large sample size places
substantial computational requirements on the regional climate
simulations.