Global Sensitivity Analysis of Nitric Oxide-Related Chemical Reaction
Rates in the Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model
Abstract
Accurate modeling of thermospheric impact of high solar and geomagnetic
activities is crucial for safeguarding our space-based infrastructure.
However, current modeling capabilities are still unable to accurately
predict thermospheric density, which is a key parameter for calculating
satellite drags. In this paper, we performed global sensitivity analysis
(GSA) for nitric oxide (NO)-related chemical reaction rates using the
Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (GITM) during solar maximum and
solar minimum conditions. We have performed GSA and uncertainty
quantification (UQ) for the first time in GITM. GITM is a
computationally expensive model; therefore, we employed a Gaussian
process (GP)-based surrogate model to approximate the thermospheric
states of GITM and inexpensively generate samples for Monte-Carlo-based
Sobol analysis. We computed first-order (main effect) and total-order
(total effect) Sobol’ sensitivity indices to quantify how the
uncertainty associated with NO-related chemical reaction rate
coefficients in GITM influences the variance of the NO density, NO
cooling rate, temperature, and neutral density. Our study identified the
most influential reaction rates the uncertainty of which contribute to
the most uncertainty in estimating thermospheric states in GITM and
provided important information for UQ within GITM to accurately estimate
the thermospheric density. Our findings suggest that reducing the
uncertainty in the reaction rates, particularly for RR43 ($NO + hv
ightarrow N ({}^4 S) + O$), RR44 ($N({}^4 S) + O_2
ightarrow NO + O$), and RR5 ($N_2^+ + O ightarrow NO^+
({}^2 D) + N ({}^2 D)$), should be prioritized to fix GITM’s
response to variations in F10.7 solar flux.