Biomass Burning and Gas Flares create the extreme West African Aerosol
Plume which perturbs the Hadley Circulation and thereby changes Europe's
Winter Climate
Abstract
Three significant changes have occurred in the winter climate in Europe
recently: increased UK flooding; Iberian drought; and warmer
temperatures north of the Alps. The literature links all three to a
persistent, significant increase in sea level pressure over Southern
Europe, the Mediterranean, Iberia and the Eastern Atlantic (SEMIEA)
which changes the atmospheric circulation system: forcing cold fronts to
the north away from Iberia; and creating a south westerly flow around
the northern perimeter of the high-pressure region bringing warmer,
moist air from the subtropical Atlantic to the UK and Europe which
increases precipitation in the UK and raises the temperature in Europe.
I use CMIP6, the Last Millennium Ensemble, MERRA-2 and Terra-NCEP-ERA5
data to demonstrate that the extreme, anthropogenic, West African
aerosol Plume (WAP) which exists from December to April perturbs the
northern, regional Hadley Circulation creating the high pressure in
SEMIEA. I also show that the anthropogenic WAP has only existed in its
extreme form in recent decades as the two major sources of the WAP:
biomass burning; and gas flaring have both increased significantly since
1950 due to: a four-fold increase in population; and gas flaring rising
from zero to 7.4 billion m3/annum and note that this time span coincides
with the changes in Europe’s winter climate. I also suggest that it may
be possible to eliminate the WAP and return the winter climate of Europe
to its natural state after the crucial step of recognising the cause of
the changes is taken.