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Biomass Burning and Gas Flares create the extreme West African Aerosol Plume which perturbs the Hadley Circulation and thereby changes Europe's Winter Climate
  • Keith Alan Potts
Keith Alan Potts
Kyna Keju Pty Ltd

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Abstract

Three significant changes have occurred in the winter climate in Europe recently: increased UK flooding; Iberian drought; and warmer temperatures north of the Alps. The literature links all three to a persistent, significant increase in sea level pressure over Southern Europe, the Mediterranean, Iberia and the Eastern Atlantic (SEMIEA) which changes the atmospheric circulation system: forcing cold fronts to the north away from Iberia; and creating a south westerly flow around the northern perimeter of the high-pressure region bringing warmer, moist air from the subtropical Atlantic to the UK and Europe which increases precipitation in the UK and raises the temperature in Europe. I use CMIP6, the Last Millennium Ensemble, MERRA-2 and Terra-NCEP-ERA5 data to demonstrate that the extreme, anthropogenic, West African aerosol Plume (WAP) which exists from December to April perturbs the northern, regional Hadley Circulation creating the high pressure in SEMIEA. I also show that the anthropogenic WAP has only existed in its extreme form in recent decades as the two major sources of the WAP: biomass burning; and gas flaring have both increased significantly since 1950 due to: a four-fold increase in population; and gas flaring rising from zero to 7.4 billion m3/annum and note that this time span coincides with the changes in Europe’s winter climate. I also suggest that it may be possible to eliminate the WAP and return the winter climate of Europe to its natural state after the crucial step of recognising the cause of the changes is taken.
27 Sep 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
27 Sep 2024Published in ESS Open Archive