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Response of intense North Atlantic midlatitude cyclones to a warmer climate in the GFDL X-SHiELD global storm-resolving kilometer-scale model
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  • Emanuele Silvio Gentile,
  • Ming Zhao,
  • Lucas Harris,
  • Kevin Hodges,
  • Zhihong Tan
Emanuele Silvio Gentile
Princeton University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Ming Zhao
GFDL/NOAA
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Lucas Harris
GFDL
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Kevin Hodges
University of Reading
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Zhihong Tan
Princeton University
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Abstract

Leveraging the novel kilometer-scale global storm-resolving model GFDL X-SHiELD, we investigate the impact of a 4 K increase in sea surface temperatures on Northern Hemisphere midlatitude cyclones, over a three-year-long period. X-SHiELD simulations show a poleward shift in midlatitude cyclone tracks under +4 K warming, consistent with CMIP model projections. Thanks to X-SHiELD’s high resolution and explicit deep convection, we provide a detailed analysis of the warm and cold sectors of midlatitude cyclones, which are typically underrepresented in coarser CMIP models. Compositing the 100 most intense midlatitude cyclones in the North Atlantic, we find that the warm sector exhibits wind speed and precipitation increases of up to 15% and 20% per degree of warming, respectively, while changes in the cold sector are less pronounced. This study demonstrates X-SHiELD’s potential to provide a realistic-looking picture into the evolving risks posed by midlatitude cyclones in a warmer world.
26 Sep 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
27 Sep 2024Published in ESS Open Archive