Increasing the Glen–Nye power law exponent accelerates ice loss
projections for the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica
Abstract
Glacier flow is typically modeled using a power law rheology known as
the Glen–Nye flow law, with the power n assumed to be 3. However,
recent research and past observations suggest that n=4 may better
represent ice flow in some locations. We lack a quantitative
understanding of how much this exponent affects ice loss projections,
and its significance relative to other sources of uncertainty. Here, we
test the effect of n=3 versus n=4 in a series of 300-year forward
simulations of the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica. We find that
in periods of rapid grounding line retreat, uncertainty in n leads to a
larger spread in ice loss projections than the spread due to uncertainty
in climate forcing. The spatial sensitivity of n is generally
proportional to the change in strain rates, so we expect regions
undergoing more moderate dynamic change to be less sensitive to n.