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Increasing the Glen–Nye power law exponent accelerates ice loss projections for the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica
  • Benjamin Getraer,
  • Mathieu Morlighem
Benjamin Getraer
Dartmouth College

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Mathieu Morlighem
Dartmouth College
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Abstract

Glacier flow is typically modeled using a power law rheology known as the Glen–Nye flow law, with the power n assumed to be 3. However, recent research and past observations suggest that n=4 may better represent ice flow in some locations. We lack a quantitative understanding of how much this exponent affects ice loss projections, and its significance relative to other sources of uncertainty. Here, we test the effect of n=3 versus n=4 in a series of 300-year forward simulations of the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica. We find that in periods of rapid grounding line retreat, uncertainty in n leads to a larger spread in ice loss projections than the spread due to uncertainty in climate forcing. The spatial sensitivity of n is generally proportional to the change in strain rates, so we expect regions undergoing more moderate dynamic change to be less sensitive to n.
26 Sep 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
26 Sep 2024Published in ESS Open Archive