Computationally Efficient Subglacial Drainage Modeling Using Gaussian
Process Emulators
Abstract
Subglacial drainage models represent water flow at the ice–bed
interface through coupled distributed and channelized systems to
determine water pressure, discharge and drainage system geometry. While
they are used to understand processes such as the relationship between
surface melt and ice flow, the combination of the number of uncertain
model parameters and their computational cost makes it difficult to
adequately explore the high-dimensional parameter space and construct
robust model predictions. Here, we develop Gaussian Process (GP)
emulators that make fast predictions accompanied by uncertainty of
subglacial drainage model outputs. Using a truncated principal component
basis representation, we construct a GP emulator for daily
representation of subglacial water pressure. We also explore emulation
of scalar variables describing drainage efficiency and configuration. We
train the emulators using ensembles of up to 512 simulations varying
eight parameters of the Glacier Drainage System (GlaDS) model on a
synthetic domain intended to represent an ice-sheet margin. The
emulators make predictions ~1000 times faster than GlaDS
simulations, with error <3% for the water pressure field and
~5–9% for drainage efficiency and configuration. We
apply the emulators to explore the eight-dimensional input space by
computing variance-based parameter-sensitivity indices, finding that
three parameters (ice-flow coefficient, bed bump aspect ratio and the
subglacial cavity system conductivity) explain 90% of the water
pressure variance. The GP emulator approach described here is
well-suited to integrate observational data with models to make
calibrated, credible predictions of subglacial drainage.