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The Cloud Radiative Response to Surface Warming Weakens Hydrological Sensitivity
  • +2
  • Zachary McGraw,
  • Lorenzo M Polvani,
  • Blaž Gasparini,
  • Emily K Van De Koot,
  • Aiko Voigt
Zachary McGraw
Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

Author Profile
Lorenzo M Polvani
Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University
Blaž Gasparini
Department of Meteorology and Geophysics, University of Vienna
Emily K Van De Koot
Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford
Aiko Voigt
Department of Meteorology and Geophysics, University of Vienna

Abstract

Precipitation is expected to increase in a warmer global climate, yet how sensitive precipitation is to warming depends on poorly constrained cloud radiative processes. Clouds respond to surface warming in ways that alter the atmosphere's ability to radiatively cool and hence form precipitation. Here we examine the links between cloud responses to warming, atmospheric radiative fluxes, and hydrological sensitivity in AMIP6 simulations. The clearest impacts come from high clouds, which reduce atmospheric radiative cooling as they rise in altitude in response to surface warming. Using cloud locking, we demonstrate that high cloud radiative changes weaken Earth's hydrological sensitivity to surface warming. The total impact of cloud radiative effects on hydrological sensitivity is halved by interactions between cloud and clear-sky radiative effects, yet is sufficiently large to be a major source of uncertainty in hydrological sensitivity.
03 Sep 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
05 Sep 2024Published in ESS Open Archive