Satellite Estimation of Global Sea-Air Carbon Dioxide Fugacity from 2000
to 2020 based on Machine Learning Models
Abstract
Based on over 160,000 quality-controlled measurements of surface ocean
carbon dioxide fugacity from 2000 to 2020, and employing machine
learning methods, a satellite-based assessment model for sea-air carbon
dioxide fugacity (fCO2) has been developed, aiming to reveal global
changes in sea-air carbon dioxide fugacity over the past 20 years.
Examining factors affecting fCO2, this study encompasses satellite data
coordinates, basic seawater parameters such as salinity ,temperature,
wind speed, seawater acidity and alkalinity, seawater velocity, surface
geostrophic sea water velocity, surface partial pressure of carbon
dioxide in sea water, surface downward mass flux of carbon dioxide
expressed as carbon, as well as concentrations of dissolved inorganic
carbon, phosphate, nitrate concentration, thickness of the marine mixed
layer, seawater total alkalinity, silicate influencing seawater
solubility, chlorophyll concentration indicating biological activity,
and dissolved oxygen concentration. A comparative analysis was conducted
on various machine learning methods, including XGBoost, Random Forest,
Light Gradient Booster, Feedforward Neural Network, Convolutional Neural
Network, and Backpropagation Neural Network. XGBoost machine learning
algorithm was chosen for model construction based on the best
performance. The results of independent field validation indicate that
the model has a low root mean square error (RMES=18.08μatm) and mean
absolute percentage error (MAPE=1.1%) and R-squared (R2=0.91). Finally,
the global distribution of sea-air carbon dioxide fugacity at a
resolution of 0.25°×0.25° from 2000 to 2020 has been reconstructed. The
carbon dioxide fugacity in the global oceans has shown a slow upward
trend, over the past 20 years, the carbon dioxide fugacity in global
oceans has increased by 6.7%.