Abstract
The air-sea transfer of carbon dioxide can be viewed as a dynamical
system through which atmospheric and oceanic processes push surface
waters away from thermodynamic equilibrium, while diffusive gas transfer
pulls them back towards local equilibrium. These push/pull processes
drive significant sub-seasonal, seasonal, and interannual variability in
air-sea carbon fluxes, the quantification of which is critical both for
diagnosing the ocean response to fossil fuel emissions and for attempts
to mitigate anthropogenic climate disruption through intentional
modification of surface ocean biogeochemistry. In this study, we present
a new approach for attributing air-sea carbon fluxes to specific
mechanisms. The new framework is first applied to the two-box ocean
nutrient and carbon cycle model as an illustrative example. Next, the
outputs from a regional eddy-resolving model of the Southern Ocean are
analyzed. The roles of multiple physical and biogeochemical processes
are identified. Decomposition of the seasonal air-sea carbon flux shows
the dominant role of biological carbon pumps that are partially
compensated by the transport convergence. Finally, the framework is used
to diagnose the response to mesoscale iron and alkalinity release,
explicitly quantifying transport feedbacks and eventual impacts on net
air-sea carbon flux. Ocean carbon transport have divergent influences
between iron and alkalinity release, due to opposing near-surface
gradients of dissolved inorganic carbon. More broadly, we suggest that
our attribution framework may be a useful analytical technique for
monitoring natural ocean carbon fluxes and quantifying the impacts of
human intervention on the ocean carbon cycle.