Abstract
We developed an eruption forecasting model using data from multiple
sensors or data streams with the Bayesian Network method. The model
generates probabilistic forecasts that are interpretable and resilient
against sensor outage. We applied the model at Whakaari/White Island, an
andesite island volcano off the coast of New Zealand, using seismic
tremor recordings, earthquake rate, and CO2, SO2, and H2S emission
rates. At Whakaari/White Island, our model shows increases in eruption
probability months to weeks prior to the three explosive eruptions that
were recorded since 2012. We also observe that explosive eruptions
consistently occurred after the cumulative probability exceeded at least
80%. Although developed for Whakaari/White Island, our model can be
easily adapted to other volcanoes, complementing existing forecasting
methods that rely on single data streams.