The Arctic Ocean is a key component of Earth’s climate system, and an understanding of ocean dynamics in this region is central for predicting how the Arctic is responding to a changing climate. In this study, we examine the ocean circulation in a high-resolution numerical model of the Arctic Ocean and Nordic Seas. Based on what is observed in this simulation, we re-examine an existing idealized linear model predicting the time-variable large-scale circulation in ocean basins, and test it against the highly non-linear numerical model. The idealized model is an integral relation derived from the linear momentum equations and assumes that the circulation around a closed depth contour is driven by surface stresses and regulated by bottom friction. We show that the idealized model estimates agree very well with the numerical simulations. This indicates that much of the variability of the large-scale circulation can be explained by linear processes. In particular, a correct description of the net surface stress over partially ice-covered areas improves the skill significantly in the Arctic Ocean compared to a previous study. However, in contrast to that previous study, we find that the linear model might be lacking a cyclonic tendency.