Abstract
Origins of material in the ocean are commonly identified by tracing
Lagrangian particle trajectories backward-in-time in two or three
dimensions. While this is mathematically consistent, numerical
computations are hampered by numerical round-off and truncation errors,
leading to discrepancies between forward- and backward-in-time
trajectories. The chaotic nature of ocean flows amplifies these errors.
We identify an additional issue with Lagrangian backtracking, related to
the reversal of stability with regards to velocity convergence and
divergence. Trajectories near convergent regions are stable to numerical
errors when calculated forward-in-time but become unstable
backward-in-time. The timescales at which trajectories reside in
convergent zones are thus underestimated in backward-in-time
computations, meaning convergent regions (downwelling zones) become
underrepresented and divergent zones (upwelling zones, river mouths)
overrepresented as trajectory sources. Using mesoscale experiments
representing common set-ups, we show that already for timescales of less
than half a year, this leads to systematic biases in the regions
identified as particle origins. These biases can extend over distances
of thousands of kilometers. While this stability bias is linked to
divergence, it is not only limited to 2D trajectories in 3D flows, as we
discuss how inappropriate treatment of surface boundary conditions in 3D
Lagrangian studies can also introduce an effective non-zero divergence.
These findings have consequences for source-attribution modeling, for
example in the context of water mass tracing, ecology, and pollution
studies. Backtracking is typically applied to material that has
accumulated in convergent zones, where the stability bias is especially
relevant, which further impedes source attribution.