Extreme Precipitation over the Greater Antilles: Relation with Large-Scale Circulation and Humidity
Carlo Destouches
Faculté des Sciences, Universite d'Etat d'Haïti, LMI CARIBACT, URGéo, Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement (UMR 5001, Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Grenoble Alpes -CNRS, INRAE -IRD -Grenoble INP), IGE
Corresponding Author:[email protected]
Author ProfileDavide Faranda
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay & IPSL, CE Saclay l'Orme des Merisiers, London Mathematical Laboratory, LMD/IPSL, ENS, Université PSL, École Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Sorbonne Université, CNRS
Abstract
This study examines extreme precipitation over the Greater Antilles and its relationship with large-scale circulation and specific humidity over the period 1985-2015. The data used in this study were derived from the Reanalyses ERA5(specific humidity, wind) at 925hPa and the CHIRPS satellite product with a resolution of 31 km and 5km respectively. The characteristics of the synoptic environment for the six weather types (WTs) determined by the K-means algorithm and the Elbow method were described, the associated extreme precipitation events were defined and their frequency anomalies were calculated using the contingency table. The influence of ENSO was also analyzed using the Mann-Whitney Wilcoxon. The results show that the WTs [3-6] weather types are associated with extreme precipitation in Jamaica, Puerto Rico, and the eastern Dominican Republic. WTs weather types [3-6] also lead to an increase in the frequency of extreme days in Puerto Rico, Jamaica, the eastern Dominican Republic, and northeastern Cuba. During the dry season(DJF) , this increased frequency was observed in southern Haiti and eastern Dominican Republic. Conversely, for WTs weather types [2-4], a decrease in extreme day frequencies was observed on all islands, except northwest Cuba, where an increase in frequency was observed. Furthermore, for Wts [3-6], the results reveal that winters in cold years (negative ENSO phase) are associated with a significant increase in extreme precipitation in northern Haiti, eastern Dominican Republic, and northeastern Cuba. On the other hand, in summer, during ENSO's positive phase, the increase in extreme precipitation observed over certain regions is not significant.