Abstract
We examine a mechanism of how the frequency of the realization of the
Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is influenced on the interannual time
scale. The activity of MJO realization in each boreal winter is
quantified by the number of MJO active days during the tracking of the
Real-time multivariate MJO index. In active years of MJO realization
(MJO-A), multiple MJO events are realized and they propagate into the
western Pacific (WP) successfully, but this situation is not observed in
inactive years (MJO-IA). This contrast is explained by whether vertical
moisture advection over the WP is disrupted or not. It is related to
differences in boreal-winter mean convection and circulations: MJO-A
(MJO-IA) years are characterized by enhanced and suppressed (suppressed
and enhanced) convection over the WP and Maritime Continent (MC),
respectively. This modulation results from combined effects of the El
Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO) and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO).
During moderate El Niño, MJO is realized more actively as the Niño 3.4
index becomes higher irrespective of QBO, whereas during other ENSO
phases, stronger QBO-easterly phases favor MJO realization irrespective
of ENSO amplitudes. The connection between MJO realization and QBO
except for El Niño conditions is due to zonally heterogeneous QBO
impacts that the seasonal mean static stability change near the
tropopause over the WP alters the mean convective activity there. This
zonal heterogeneity and ENSO phase-dependency of QBO impacts is
interpreted with a focus on vertical propagation of Kelvin wave
structure over the MC, affected by both QBO winds and background Walker
circulations.