b-Bayesian : The Full Probabilistic Estimate of b-value Temporal
Variations for Non-Truncated Catalogs
Abstract
The frequency/magnitude distribution of earthquakes can be approximated
by an exponential law whose exponent (the so-called b-value) is
routinely used for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. The b-value
is commonly measured using Aki’s maximum likelihood estimation, although
biases can arise from the choice of completeness magnitude (i.e. the
magnitude below which the exponential law is no longer valid). In this
work, we introduce the b-Bayesian method, where the full
frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes is modelled by the
product of an exponential law and a detection law. The detection law is
characterized by two parameters, which we jointly estimate with the
b-value within a Bayesian framework. All available data are used to
recover the joint probability distribution. The b-Bayesian approach
recovers temporal variations of the b-value and the detectability using
a transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) algorithm to explore
numerous configurations of their time variations. An application to a
seismic catalog of far-western Nepal shows that detectability decreases
significantly during the monsoon period, while the b-value remains
stable, albeit with larger uncertainties. This confirms that variations
in the b-value can be estimated independently of variations in
detectability (i.e. completeness). Our results are compared with those
obtained using the maximum likelihood estimation, and using the
b-positive approach, showing that our method avoids dependence on
arbitrary choices such as window length or completeness thresholds.