La Niña effects on MJO-atmospheric river connections over the North
Pacific and associated western North American precipitation
Abstract
We investigate changes in the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) modulation
of cool-season North Pacific atmospheric rivers (ARs) and associated
AR-landfall North American precipitation during La Niña (LN) years.
Overall, AR frequency is reduced over the northeastern Pacific and
western North America in phases 2-5 of the MJO. However, under LN,
increased AR activity appears over those regions in phases 4-5 and
across the central North Pacific in phase 3. Distinct effects of LN on
the basic state and MJO contribute to the persistence of AR anomalous
patterns in phases 3-5. For instance, MJO intensifies in phase 3 under
LN, favoring the coupling between anomalous northeastward integrated
water vapor transport (IVT) and the MJO convection over the eastern
Indian Ocean. Also, suppressed MJO convection in phase 4 strengthens and
shifts eastwards in LN, affecting the MJO teleconnection associated with
North Pacific ARs. The northern Pacific subtropical jet extends
northeastwards in LN, supporting an extratropical cyclonic flow over the
Gulf of Alaska. The MJO propagates eastward more slowly over the
Maritime Continent in LN, favoring a second coupling between eastward
IVT and the MJO convection in phase 5. Decreased AR precipitation and
frequency of AR rainfall extremes in phases 2-5 over western North
America fade in LN years. Furthermore, increased AR precipitation and
frequency of AR extremes over the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia
intensify and shift from phases 3-4 to 4-5. Therefore, LN has nonlinear
effects on the North Pacific MJO-AR connections and their AR landfalling
impacts on western North American precipitation.