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Future freshwater fluxes from the Antarctic ice sheet
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  • Violaine COULON,
  • Jan De Rydt,
  • Thomas Gregov,
  • Qing Qin,
  • Frank Pattyn
Violaine COULON
Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)
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Jan De Rydt
Northumbria University
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Thomas Gregov
Université de Liège
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Qing Qin
Northumbria University
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Frank Pattyn
Université Libre de Bruxelles

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Abstract

Surface freshening of the Southern Ocean driven by meltwater discharge from the Antarctic ice sheet has been shown to influence global climate dynamics. However, most climate models fail to account for spatially- and temporally-varying freshwater inputs from ice sheets, introducing significant uncertainty into climate projections. Here, we present the first historically-calibrated projections of Antarctic freshwater fluxes (sub-shelf melting, calving, and surface meltwater runoff) to 2300 that can be used to force climate models lacking interactive ice sheets. Our findings indicate substantial changes in the magnitude and partitioning of Antarctic freshwater discharge over the coming decades and centuries, particularly under very-high warming scenarios, driven by the progressive collapse of the West Antarctic ice shelves. We project a shift in the form and location of Antarctic freshwater sources, as liquid sub-shelf melting increases under all climate scenarios, and surface meltwater runoff could potentially become a dominant contributor under extreme atmospheric warming.
17 Jul 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
19 Jul 2024Published in ESS Open Archive