Relating megathrust seismogenic behavior and subduction parameters via
Machine Learning at global scale
Abstract
We investigate the relationship between the seismogenic behavior of
global megathrusts and various subduction parameters. We performed a
parametric approach by implementing three decision tree-based Machine
Learning (ML) algorithms to predict the b-value of the
frequency-magnitude relationship of seismicity as a non-linear
combination of subduction variables (subducting plate age and roughness,
slab dip, convergence speed and azimuth, distance to closest ridge and
plate boundary). Using the Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to
interpret the ML results, we observe that plate age and subduction dip
are the most influential variables. The results suggest that older,
shallow-dipping plates contribute to low b-values, indicating higher
megathrust stress. This pattern is attributed to the higher rigidity of
older plates, increasing flexural strength, and generating a shallow
penetration angle, increasing the frictional interplate area and
intensifying the megathrust stress. These findings offer new insights
into the non-linear complexity of seismic behaviour at global scale.