Abstract
Lake Powell regulates the erratic flows of the Upper Colorado River,
storing water in wet periods for use during multi-decadal dry spells.
Reservoirs also integrate consumptive use (CU) at or above the
reservoir. In colloquial terms, a reservoir retains a memory of all
previous inflows, depletions and outflows and it preserves this memory
until it spills or empties completely. This article describes and
demonstrates the nature of reservoir memory, explores the physical
effects of persistence of reservoir memory, and illustrates what those
physical effects mean for intra-state water management in the Upper
Colorado River Basin. The period between when Lake Powell spills and
subsequently empties will typically be several decades in length, so a
small increase in Upper Basin CU will accumulate over that period and
eventually lead to a large deficit in reservoir storage. This leads to
two policy consequences: 1) a small annual exceedance of the amount of
water legally available for CU in the Upper Basin can lead to a
disruptive curtailment of water use under the terms of the Colorado
River Compact, and 2) it is impossible to avoid or comply with a
curtailment using involuntary cutbacks under a prior appropriation water
rights system. A “grand bargain” that involves proportional
allocation, or a cap on Upper Division CU in exchange for forbearance of
curtailment by the Lower Basin in the event of shortfalls to the Lee
Ferry flow obligation would eliminate this complication. This problem
will also affect credit/debit-based entitlements.