Representing sub-grid processes in weather and climate models via
sequence learning
Abstract
Machine learning (ML) is actively being explored as a potential way of
representing unresolved sub-grid processes with more realism than
traditional parameterizations. A typical approach has been to generate
training data with cloud-resolving simulations, and concatenate the
vertical profiles of several atmospheric variables into input and output
vectors of a feed-forward neural network. However, these networks lack
the connections to directly propagate information through the vertical
column.
Here we examine if predictions can be improved by instead traversing the
vertical column using a recurrent neural network (RNN), which also
respects the fact that physical laws do not change by height.
By using datasets published in other studies, we test ”vertical RNNs” on
three different problems (non-orographic gravity waves, moist physics
and non-local unified parameterization). In each case, we find that
bidirectional RNNs have similar or higher offline accuracy as
feed-forward models while using fewer trainable parameters. While
prognostic climate simulations were not performed in this exploratory
work, the RNNs are more stable in offline autoregressive tests than
ResNets, the previous state-of-the-art.