loading page

Limited effect of future land-use changes on human heat stress and labour capacity
  • +17
  • Steven Johan De Hertog,
  • Anton Orlov,
  • Felix Havermann,
  • Suqi Guo,
  • Iris Manola,
  • Julia Pongratz,
  • Quentin Lejeune,
  • Carl-Friedrich Schleussner,
  • Inga Menke,
  • Florian Humpenöder,
  • Alexander Popp,
  • Peter J Lawrence,
  • George C. Hurtt,
  • Louise Chini,
  • Inne Vanderkelen,
  • Eduard Davin,
  • Thomas Jasper Reerink,
  • Sonia I. Seneviratne,
  • Hans Verbeek,
  • Wim Thiery
Steven Johan De Hertog
Universiteit Gent

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

Author Profile
Anton Orlov
Center for International Climate Research
Author Profile
Felix Havermann
Dept. of Geography, Ludwig Maximilian University
Author Profile
Suqi Guo
Ludwig Maximilian University, Department of of Geography,
Author Profile
Iris Manola
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Author Profile
Julia Pongratz
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitaet Muenchen, Dep. Geographie
Author Profile
Quentin Lejeune
ETH Zurich
Author Profile
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Climate Analytics
Author Profile
Inga Menke
Climate analytics
Author Profile
Florian Humpenöder
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Author Profile
Alexander Popp
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Author Profile
Peter J Lawrence
National Center for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)
Author Profile
George C. Hurtt
University of Maryland, College Park
Author Profile
Louise Chini
University of Maryland, College Park
Author Profile
Inne Vanderkelen
KU Leuven and RMI
Author Profile
Eduard Davin
Universitat Bern - Climate and Environmental Physics (CEP)
Author Profile
Thomas Jasper Reerink
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
Author Profile
Sonia I. Seneviratne
ETH Zurich
Author Profile
Hans Verbeek
Universiteit Gent
Author Profile
Wim Thiery
Vrije Universiteit Brussel
Author Profile

Abstract

To achieve the 1.5°C target of the Paris agreement, rapid, sustained, and deep emission reductions are required, which often includes negative emissions through land-based mitigation. However, the effects of future land-use change on climate are often not considered when quantifying the climate-induced impacts on human heat stress and labour capacity. By conducting simulations with three fully-coupled Earth System Models, we project the effects of land-use change on heat stress and outdoor labour capacity for two contrasting future land-use scenarios under high-ambition mitigation. Achieving a sustainable land-use scenario with increasing global forest cover instead of an inequality scenario with decreasing forest cover in the Global South causes a global cooling ranging between 0.09°C and 0.35°C across the Earth System Models. However, the effects on human heat stress are less strong, especially over the regions of intense land-use change such as the tropics, where biogeophysical effects on near-surface relative humidity and wind speed counteract the cooling effect under warm extremes. The corresponding influence on outdoor labour capacity is small and inconsistent across the three Earth System Models. These results clearly highlight the importance of land-use change scenarios for achieving global temperature targets while questioning the adaptation potential for reduction in heat stress.
10 Jul 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
11 Jul 2024Published in ESS Open Archive