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Australasian hydroclimate response to the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under pre-industrial and Last Interglacial climates
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  • Himadri Saini,
  • Gabriel Pontes,
  • Josephine R. Brown,
  • Russell Drysdale,
  • Yanxuan Du,
  • Laurie Menviel
Himadri Saini
UNSW Australia

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Gabriel Pontes
University of New South Wales
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Josephine R. Brown
University of Melbourne
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Russell Drysdale
University of Melbourne
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Yanxuan Du
University of Melbourne
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Laurie Menviel
University of New South Wales
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Abstract

Abrupt climate change events during the last glacial period and the Last Interglacial resulted from changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Over the last 50 years, the AMOC has weakened and is projected to weaken further or even collapse this century due to freshwater influx from melting glaciers driven by climate warming. Despite numerous modelling studies investigating the impacts of an AMOC shutdown, little is known about its impact on Australasian hydroclimate, particularly under a climate warmer than the pre-industrial (PI). Using the ACCESS-ESM1.5 model, we assess the processes impacting seasonal hydroclimate in the Australasian region in response to an AMOC shutdown under PI and Last Interglacial (LIG) climatic conditions. While the broad hydroclimate response to an AMOC shutdown is similar in both experiments, notable regional differences emerge, highlighting the influence of background climate states. During austral summer (DJF), the AMOC shutdown leads to drier conditions over the Maritime Continent and increased precipitation over northern Australia under both PI and LIG conditions. However, the precipitation increase over Australia is weaker under PI than LIG. During austral winter (JJA), mid to high southern latitude regions of Australia and New Zealand experience drying in response to the AMOC shutdown under PI boundary conditions, while under LIG boundary conditions, only southeastern Australia and New Zealand exhibit drier conditions, with northwestern Australia displaying wetter conditions. These results underscore the complex and region-specific responses of Australasian hydroclimate to AMOC disruptions, highlighting the importance of considering background climate states when assessing such impacts.
10 Jul 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
11 Jul 2024Published in ESS Open Archive