The observed El Niño-induced droughts from April to May 2023 increase
the risk of famine in West Africa
Abstract
The return of El Niño in 2023 brought record-breaking global
temperatures, an increase in the number of forest fires, flooding,
heatwaves, and intense and severe droughts. This paper presents a
detailed analysis of the impact of El Niño on rainfall patterns during
the planting season and the potential consequences for agricultural
productivity in West Africa. We perform a spatio-temporal analysis of
rainfall, temperature, relative humidity, soil moisture, and droughts
for the year 2023 and compare them with the previous year and
climatology. We uncover El Niño footprints characterized by early rains
in March, high temperature, humidity, and low rainfall in the middle of
the planting season (April to May) compared to 2022. Farmers in West
Africa usually expect rainfall in early April to start the agricultural
season. This shift in rainfall patterns can have a serious impact on
agricultural activities and increase vulnerability to severe famine in
the region.