Cross-attractor transforms: Improving forecasts by learning optimal maps
between dynamical systems and imperfect models
Abstract
Biased, incomplete models are often used for forecasting states of
complex dynamical systems by mapping an estimate of a “true’ initial
state into model phase space, making a forecast, and then mapping back
to the “true’ space. While advances have been made to reduce errors
associated with model initialization and model forecasts, we lack a
general framework for discovering optimal mappings between the reference
dynamical system and the model phase space. Here, we propose using a
data-driven approach to infer these maps. Our approach consistently
reduces errors in the Lorenz-96 system with an imperfect model
constructed to produce significant model errors compared to a reference
configuration. Optimal pre- and post-processing transforms leverage
“shocks’ and “drifts’ in the imperfect model to make more skillful
forecasts of the reference system. The implemented machine learning
architecture using neural networks constructed with a custom
analog-adjoint layer makes the approach generalizable to numerous
applications.