Future Biogeochemical Conditions in Southern South China Sea from CMIP6
Model Projection
Abstract
This study employs Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Earth
System Models under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios
SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 to investigate the future projection of
biogeochemical conditions in the southern South China Sea (SCS) from
2015 to 2100. We focus on projected changes in Sea Surface Temperature
and seven important biogeochemical variables such as Chlorophyll,
Phytoplankton, integrated Primary Production, Oxygen, Nitrate, Phosphate
and pH. Our results consistently indicate substantial warming of +1 to
+3 °C at the end of 21st century across all scenarios in southern SCS
region, potentially leading to cascading consequences for marine
ecosystems and fisheries. Projected increases in surface temperatures
are expected to induce declining dissolved Oxygen levels of -3 to -8
mmol m-3 and ocean acidification of -0.1 to -0.4 units, posing a
multifaceted threat to this crucial fishing ground. Furthermore, our
analysis suggests a significant decrease in Phosphate concentrations
ranging -1.4 to -2 mmol m-3/year across all scenarios. This decline in
nutrient availability could potentially limit productivity and the
entire marine food web in this region. These projections provide
valuable scientific insights for policymakers and stakeholders to
formulate strategies aimed at mitigating the adverse effects of climate
change on the southern SCS and ensuring the long-term sustainability of
its fishery resources.