Abstract
In Kenya, the heavy rains in April 2024, which triggered flash floods
that killed at least 228 people, left 72 others missing and displaced
more than 212,000 people, were linked to El Niño 2023. El Niño can
trigger extreme events around the globe, causing severe damage to
people, animals, and ecosystems. This paper examines the vulnerability
of Kenya’s regional health sectors to the 2023 El Niño event and future
climate change under different CO2 emission pathways. Using a
spatio-temporal analysis of temperature, precipitation, and relative
humidity, we show that El Niño led to a significant increase in
temperature from May to October 2023 compared to 2022, while extreme
precipitation and relative humidity were observed in November. The
northeastern region is the most vulnerable to extreme weather events,
followed by the eastern region, the coastal region, and the upper parts
of the Rift Valley. Future projections show that under SSP3 and higher
emission scenarios, the risk of these regions being exposed to extreme
heatwaves will increase by more than 60% by 2100. There
is an urgent need to address the potential health impacts in vulnerable
regions and to prepare and intervene early to prevent future health
crises related to ENSO events. We recommend prioritizing these regions
in the development of health facilities in Kenya, improving emergency
medical care, expanding green spaces, practicing regular hydration, and
introducing adequate domestic ventilation to combat health crises from
future extreme climate events.