Would the occurrence of a Maunder-like solar minimum reverse the
observed climate change?
Abstract
This study examines a scenario combining a prolonged solar minimum,
like the historical Maunder Minimum, with the increased CO2 emissions
characteristic of the post-industrial era. Two scenarios were developed
in NCAR/CESM 2.0 implemented at LAMMOC/UFF to create simulations from
1850 to 2000, it contrasts differing radiative forcings from 1950
onward—one reflecting actual observed changes, including rising CO2
levels, and the other simulating a decrease in solar output like that
during the Maunder Minimum but with continued CO2 growth. The results
were validated against ERA5 data and 20th-century reanalysis. By
calculating meridional averages at 30-degree latitude intervals,
distinct regional impacts of the Maunder Minimum were identified.
Notably the simulated Maunder Minimum reduced global warming by and even
mitigated 70% in HS in the last decade of the 20th century. However,
this attenuation was lower in the HN, especially in the 30-60N region
where no attenuation was observed.