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The Ocean System Pathways (OSPs): a new scenario and simulation framework to investigate the future of the world fisheries
  • +23
  • Olivier Maury,
  • Derek Tittensor,
  • Tyler Eddy,
  • Eddie Allison,
  • Tarub Bari,
  • Nicolas Barrier,
  • Liam Campling,
  • William Cheung,
  • Katja Frieler,
  • Beth Fulton,
  • Patrice Guillotreau,
  • Ryan Heneghan,
  • Vicky Lam,
  • David Leclère,
  • Matthieu Lengaigne,
  • Hermann Lotze-Campen,
  • Camilla Novaglio,
  • Kelly Ortega-Cisneros,
  • Jacob Schewe,
  • Yunne-Jai Shin,
  • Hans Sloterdijk,
  • Dale Squires,
  • Rashid Sumaila,
  • Alexander Tidd,
  • Bas van Ruijven,
  • Julia L. Blanchard
Olivier Maury
Institut de Recherche pour le Développement

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Derek Tittensor
Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
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Tyler Eddy
Memorial University
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Eddie Allison
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Tarub Bari
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Nicolas Barrier
MARBEC, Univ. Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer, IRD
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Liam Campling
Queen Mary University
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William Cheung
University of British Columbia
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Katja Frieler
Potsdam Institute for Climate Imapct Research
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Beth Fulton
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
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Patrice Guillotreau
Institut de Recherche pour le Développement
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Ryan Heneghan
School of Science and Environment
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Vicky Lam
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David Leclère
Ecosystem Services Management, International Institute of Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
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Matthieu Lengaigne
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Hermann Lotze-Campen
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Camilla Novaglio
University of Tasmania
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Kelly Ortega-Cisneros
University of Cape Town
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Jacob Schewe
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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Yunne-Jai Shin
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Hans Sloterdijk
Kiel University
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Dale Squires
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Rashid Sumaila
University of British Columbia
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Alexander Tidd
Institut de Recherche pour le Développement
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Bas van Ruijven
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Julia L. Blanchard
University of Tasmania
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The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) has dedicated a decade to unravelling the future impacts of climate change on marine animal biomass. FishMIP is now preparing a new simulation protocol to assess the combined effects of both climate and socio-economic changes on marine fisheries and ecosystems. This protocol will be based on the Ocean System Pathways (OSPs), a new set of socio-economic scenarios derived from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) widely used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The OSPs extend the SSPs to the economic, governance, management and socio-cultural contexts of large pelagic, small pelagic, benthic-demersal and emerging fisheries, as well as mariculture. Comprising qualitative storylines, quantitative model driver pathways and a “plug-in-model” framework, the OSPs will enable a heterogeneous suite of ecosystem models to simulate fisheries dynamics in a standardised way. This paper introduces this OSP framework and the simulation protocol that FishMIP will implement to explore future ocean social-ecological systems holistically, with a focus on critical issues such as climate justice, global food security, equitable fisheries, aquaculture development, fisheries management, and biodiversity conservation. Ultimately, the OSP framework is tailored to contribute to the synthesis work of the IPCC. It also aims to inform ongoing policy processes within the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). Finally, it seeks to support the synthesis work of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), with a particular focus on studying pathways relevant for the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD).
14 May 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
16 May 2024Published in ESS Open Archive