The Ocean System Pathways (OSPs): a new scenario and simulation
framework to investigate the future of the world fisheries
Abstract
The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems Model Intercomparison Project
(FishMIP) has dedicated a decade to unravelling the future impacts of
climate change on marine animal biomass. FishMIP is now preparing a new
simulation protocol to assess the combined effects of both climate and
socio-economic changes on marine fisheries and ecosystems. This protocol
will be based on the Ocean System Pathways (OSPs), a new set of
socio-economic scenarios derived from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
(SSPs) widely used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC). The OSPs extend the SSPs to the economic, governance, management
and socio-cultural contexts of large pelagic, small pelagic,
benthic-demersal and emerging fisheries, as well as mariculture.
Comprising qualitative storylines, quantitative model driver pathways
and a “plug-in-model” framework, the OSPs will enable a heterogeneous
suite of ecosystem models to simulate fisheries dynamics in a
standardised way. This paper introduces this OSP framework and the
simulation protocol that FishMIP will implement to explore future ocean
social-ecological systems holistically, with a focus on critical issues
such as climate justice, global food security, equitable fisheries,
aquaculture development, fisheries management, and biodiversity
conservation. Ultimately, the OSP framework is tailored to contribute to
the synthesis work of the IPCC. It also aims to inform ongoing policy
processes within the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation
(FAO). Finally, it seeks to support the synthesis work of the
Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem
Services (IPBES), with a particular focus on studying pathways relevant
for the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD).