Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble To Assess
Climate Risks and Uncertainties
Abstract
Climate change could irreversibly modify Southern Ocean ecosystems.
Marine ecosystem model (MEM) ensembles can assist policy making by
projecting future changes and allowing the evaluation and assessment of
alternative management approaches. However, projected future changes in
total consumer biomass from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model
Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) global MEM ensemble highlight an
uncertain future for the Southern Ocean, indicating the need for a
region-specific ensemble. A large source of model uncertainty originates
from the Earth system models (ESMs) used to force FishMIP models,
particularly future changes to lower trophic level biomass and sea ice
coverage. To build confidence in regional MEMs as ecosystem-based
management tools in a changing climate that can better account for
uncertainty, we propose the development of a Southern Ocean Marine
Ecosystem Model Ensemble (SOMEME) contributing to the FishMIP 2.0
regional model intercomparison initiative. One of the challenges
hampering progress of regional MEM ensembles is achieving the balance of
global standardised inputs with regional relevance. As a first step, we
design a SOMEME simulation protocol, that builds on and extends the
existing FishMIP framework, in stages that include: detailed skill
assessment of climate forcing variables for Southern Ocean regions,
extension of fishing forcing data to include whaling, and new
simulations that assess ecological links to sea-ice processes in an
ensemble of candidate regional MEMs. These extensions will help advance
assessments of urgently needed climate change impacts on Southern Ocean
ecosystems.